基于证据理论的高压树脂传递模塑成型系统可靠性分析方法

高压树脂传递模塑（HP-RTM）成型是一种先进的复合材料成型工艺，在成型过程中树脂、纤维及模具之间的热流固耦合关系复杂，并存在材料特性、工艺参数、边界条件等多源不确定性因素。基于传统概率理论对HP-RTM成型系统进行可靠性分析将面临由信息量不足、变量高维以及复杂耦合系统带来的计算规模过大等若干瓶颈问题。因此，本项目基于证据理论模型，结合成型中多场耦合特点对其成型系统可靠性进行研究。项目首先基于证据理论和似然方法研究该成型多场耦合系统解耦策略。其次研究模型误差和分布参数不确定的HP-RTM成型热流固多场耦合系统可靠性建模方法。再次通过支持向量机方法对该系统的隐式极限状态方程近似求解，并采用蒙特卡洛—马尔可夫链模拟进行可靠性分析和灵敏度分析。最后对所建立的模型和算法进行系统集成及可靠性的试验验证。本项目的完成将为HP-RTM成型及其它多场耦合系统可靠性分析提供理论参考。

High-Pressure Resin Transfer Molding (HP-RTM) is an advanced technology of composite materials forming. The forming process involves thermos-fluid-solid complex coupling among resin, fiber, and die. Further complexity arises from the uncertainties in material properties, technological parameters, boundary conditions, etc. Reliability analysis of HP-RTM based on the traditional probabilistic method may be improficient due to the intractable computational intensity originated form the insufficient information, high dimensions variables, and multidisciplinary coupling. Wherefore, the proposed project applies evidence theory model to integrate the characteristics of multi-field coupling to study the reliability of the molding system. The reliability modeling method is adopted for the HP-RTM thermos-fluid-solid coupling system, wherein model error and uncertain distribution parameters are explored. The implicit limit state equation of the system is approximated by the support vector machine method and monte carlo-markov chain simulation is applied for reliability analysis and sensitivity analysis. The analysis models and algorithms are integrated and the proposed reliability method is applied for the HP-RTM molding system. The end-all target of this project provides an analytical design theory not only for the reliability analysis of HP-RTM but also general multi-field coupling systems.