应对不同等级干旱的水库分期旱限水位及抗旱调度研究

干旱是困扰人类的重大自然灾害，干旱应对及抗旱预案逐渐成为科学研究热点。项目针对渭河流域水资源短缺、旱灾频发等问题，将大气降水、土壤墒情等水源信息耦合，构建流域综合干旱指标体系及干旱评估模型，探讨干旱致灾机理及演变规律；通过建立渭河流域VIC分布式水文模型，分析气候情景与干旱等级的响应关系；应用神经网络等方法，研究不同干旱等级下的需水过程，并建立应对干旱的流域缺水量最小优化模型，采用并行遗传算法(PGA)求解；以不同等级干旱下的气候情景驱动VIC模型，模拟水库入库径流，通过模型求解，研究相应等级干旱的水库分期优化旱限水位；根据调度结果，绘制各等级干旱下水库综合抗旱调度图，通过修正最终获得不同等级干旱下渭河流域主要水库（冯家山水库、羊毛湾水库、石头河水库、金盆水库）各分期 (春季、秋季、冬季) 旱限水位以及抗旱综合调度图。其成果对于应用有限的水资源抗旱减灾，制定干旱应急预案具有重要意义。

Drought is a kind of major natural disaster in the world, and making preparedness plans for drought resistance has gradually become a hot topic in scientific research. In order to solve the problems of water shortage and frequent drought in the Weihe River Basin , the comprehensive drought index system and evaluation model, which are coupled the information of precipitation and soil moisture, are established to study the mechanism and evolution law of drought disaster. Based on the VIC hydrological model, the response relations between climate scenarios and drought grades are analyzed. Then, the processes of water requirements for all drought grades are investigate by applying the method such as neural networks, and based on the aim of minimum water shortage of the basin, the optimal scheduling model is established to fight drought, and the PGA algorithm is used to solve the model. The reservoir inflow runoff is simulated by driving the VIC model under different climate scenarios, and the reservoir limited water levels in different periods for corresponding drought grades are calculated through scheduling model solution. According to the results of scheduling model, the reservoir operation charts for each drought grade are draw. The limited water levels and operation charts in the main reservoirs (e.g., Fengjiashan, Yangmaowan, Shitouhe and Jinpeng) in each period (e.g., spring, autumn, and winter) for each drought grade are finally obtained by emending limited water levels and dispatching lines constantly with historical data. The research will be of great significance for drought resistance and disaster reduction as well as the establishment of drought pre-emergency plans.