基于初始P波具有物理意义的地震预警方法研究

地震预警研究具有非常重要的学术价值和应用需求，近年来得到国内外高度重视和发展，但是既有地震预警方法普遍存在可靠性、时效性及适用性等问题，原因在于缺乏明确的物理意义和理论依据研究。本项目拟采用不同地区高质量地震数据解析，基于强震动形成理论分析，以及三维宽频带地震动模拟等手段，研究把握利用初始P波预测地震参数的物理意义与理论机理，研究厘清地震预警方法的适用条件，并研究探讨基于P波对大地震预警的可行性，进而提出基于初始P波的具有物理意义的高精度地震预警方法，为建立符合地震环境特点的地震预警系统和社会基础设施抗震减灾提供科学依据。

Earthquake early warning is of a very significant academic value and practical demand, which has been highly evaluated and developed in recent years around the world. However, the existing early warning methods have the unsolved issues in reliability, timeliness and applicability, due to the lack of clear physical meaning and theoretical basis study. By means of analysis on the seismic data of good quality in different regions, research on the formation of strong motion and simulation of the 3D broadband ground motion, this project intends to study the physical meaning and theoretical mechanism of using the initial P-wave to predict the earthquake parameters and clarify the application conditions for such warning methods, the feasibility of using the initial P-wave for the earthquake early warning of large earthquakes. Based on above the earthquake early warning method of high precision is proposed, and so as to provide a scientific basis for the establishment of a more reasonable earthquake early warning system that accords with the environment characteristics to prevent and reduce social infrastructure disasters.