公共政策舆情风险识别、评估、预警及对策研究

近年来，我国公共政策制定粗疏、执行粗率，由公共政策引发的社会舆情风险不断加剧，严重损害政府公信力。政府公信力来源于决策的科学性和预见性。本课题针对我国公共政策舆情风险面临的亟待解决的关键科学问题，基于公共政策与社交媒体大数据，定性与定量分析相结合，运用机器学习、专家会商、社会计算、复杂网络等理论方法，系统性地开展公共政策舆情风险识别、评估、预警和对策研究。围绕公共政策舆情风险涉及的管理科学问题，紧密结合我国公共政策舆情风险形成的特点，识别公共政策舆情风险形成机理；建立政策舆情风险综合评价体系与评估模型；将舆论反馈纳入到决策过程，构建基于舆情风险预测的政策工具选择模型，深入探讨定量研究公共政策舆情风险的理论方法体系。同时，注重理论方法研究与实践相结合，形成政策舆情风险预期管理机制和应对预案库。本研究强调多学科的交叉融合，旨在为我国有效预判和应对公共政策实施中的各类舆情风险，提供科学决策支持。

In recent years, due to careless formulation and rough execution in China's public policy process, the government has faced with unprecedented challenges from public opinion, damages the government' credibility. The government's credibility comes from scientific and predictive decision-making. In this study, we focus on the key problems in the public policy opinion risk. Based on public policy and social media, combining qualitative analysis with quantitativeanalysis, by using theoretical methods of machine learning, experts diagnosis, social computation, complex network. We carry out systematically research on identification, evaluation, early-warning and countermeasures.Around the management science problems in public policy opinion risk, according to our national conditions, for public policy opinion risk, we identify the formulation mechanism, establish the characteristics system, evaluation model, selection model for policy tools. We hold in-depth research on theoretical system for public policy opinion risk.This study is mainly united practice with theory, formulating the expectation management mechanism and counter-plan base.We focus on interdisciplinary fusion, and we are aiming to help decision-making for preventing and addressing the public policy opinion risk.