融合遥感反演土壤水的流域降水径流过程模拟及不确定性评估

土壤水是水循环关键要素，初始土壤含水量是水文模型关键参数，遥感反演多源数据为水文模拟技术进步提供了新动力。以初始土壤含水量为切入点，围绕遥感反演土壤含水量与流域水文模型融合技术这一主题，开展理论与技术研究。首先在滁州综合水文实验基地水文山实验流域开展人工降水径流科学实验，识别初始土壤含水量对降水径流过程的影响机理，为水文模拟技术改进提供理论支撑；其次选取淮河源头典型天然流域为研究对象，评估多种遥感反演土壤含水量数据产品的覆盖度与精度，建立流域土壤含水量数据集；然后研究遥感反演数据与水文模型表征土壤含水量参数的转换关系与尺度匹配方案，建立遥感反演土壤含水量作为水文模型初始状态的融合技术；最后利用统计分析、随机模拟等方法，定量评估遥感反演土壤含水量误差驱动的径流模拟不确定性。相关研究成果能够促进多学科的交叉融合与发展，推动水文模拟技术进步，为流域洪水预报、水资源预测和规划等工作提供科技支撑。

As soil water is one of the key factors of hydrologic cycle, initial soil moisture is an important parameter of hydrologic model for rainfall-runoff modeling. The remotely sensed data as a new input, has been improving the development of hydrologic modeling. The overall object of the project is to model streamflow using hydrologic model and remotely sensed soil moisture data. The specific research targets of the project are as follows: 1) based on the artificial rainfall-runoff experiments in “Hydro-hill” catchment in Chuzhou Experimental Station, to investigate the response of rainfall-runoff process to initial soil moisture and then provide new finds for the improvement of hydrologic model; 2) to evaluate the coverage and accuracy of multiple remotely sensed soil moisture dataset in a typical catchment located in the Huaihe River Basin; 3) studying the relationship and temporal and spatial scales between remotely sensed soil moisture and hydrologic modeling soil moisture, to construct a framework for streamflow modeling with hydrologic model using remotely sensed soil moisture data as initial condition of the catchment; 4) using statistics and random simulation to assess the uncertainty of streamflow simulation caused by the error of remotely sensed soil moisture. The expected achievements of the project will not only rich the knowledge of multi disciplines and improve the hydrologic simulation technology, but also be of significance for flood forecasting, water resources prediction and planning.