2012年以来连续6年中央一号文件提到“新型职业农民”培育，目前规划年均增加146万“新型职业农民”、以此推进农业转型升级，这会广泛影响乡村土地利用。从所掌握的文献看，农业转型对其他尤其是非邻近区域土地利用变化（“移位效应”）、集约度提高减少农业用地扩张（“节地效应”）以及对乡村建设用地扩张的影响还有待进一步研究；已有研究忽视了技能培训改变农业人力资本对土地利用变化的影响，以及“纯农户”中“自给农民”和“商业农民”、“职业农民”中“外来”和“本地”农民在土地利用方面的差异。运用多方式相结合获取数据、将定性和定量方法相结合、有偏和一般均衡分析相结合，从土地利用主体和区域两个层次，基于土地用途变更、土地集约利用和土地利用转型三个角度，着重分析“新型职业农民”培育驱动农业转型影响土地利用变化的“移位效应”、“节地效应”和直接土地利用变化。本研究有助于深化理解土地利用变化的远程驱动和远程影响。

Since 2012, there have been 6 “No.1 Central Document” mentioning fostering “New-type Professional Farmer”(NPF). The Ministry of Agriculture released a plan on fostering NPF in January 2017, aiming to annually increase 1.46 million NPFs to promote agrarian transformation from subsistence and semi-subsistence agriculture to commercial and modern agriculture. This will widely affect rural land use of China. To our knowledge, these following aspects have remained under-researched: (1) the “displacement effect”of agrarian transition to commercial agriculture, which is also called as indirect land use change; (2) the “land saving/sparing effect”of agricultural land use intensification caused by agrarian transition to commercial agriculture, referring to save land from agricultural expansion due to increase in the intensity of agricultural land use; (3) the impact of agrarian transition on non-agricultural land expansion; (4) the difference in land use between commercial farmer and subsistence peasant, local and non-local commercial farmer. This proposal plans to analyze the effect on land use conversion, land use intensity change and land use transition of fostering NPFs driving agrarian transition, and focus on investigating the “displacement effect”, “land saving effect”and direct land use change caused by fostering NPFS driving agrarian transition, by combining quantitative and qualitative approaches, partial and general equilibrium analysis based on multiple data sources. The outputs of the research will contribute to aid understanding the distant impact of land use change and distant driver of land use change.