抗菌药物滥用是我国亟需解决的重大卫生问题。近十年来，我国颁发了一系列相关管理规范和条例，但是抗菌药物不合理使用问题依然突出。一个关键原因在于政策实施过程中忽视了政策评价的重要性，致使相关研究不足，阻碍了政策实施信息的反馈，限制了政策完善和预期效果的彰显。本课题以最新实施的《抗菌药物临床应用管理办法》为切入点，首先构建政策评价指标体系，通过现场调研，借助粗糙集理论方法建立政策实施综合评价模型，重点对政策执行力、效果及利益相关者的反应性进行评价。同时，基于博弈论和复杂适应系统理论对政策实施过程进行分析，探究政策实施影响因素。在此基础上，基于入树基模生成集法构建《管理办法》实施系统结构模型，明确抗菌药物管理政策实施的关键环节、决定性因素及作用路径等政策设计和贯彻要点。本研究将建立新的评价方法和模型，对我国抗菌药物管理政策的实施效果及影响因素作出准确全面的评价，为政策的完善和有效实施提供决策依据。

Abuse of antibiotics is a serious and urgent health problem in China. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has enacted a series of antibiotic restriction policies, but achieved little. Main reason to this situation is the absence of policy evaluation, resulting in a lack of relating researches, impediment of policy modification and undesirable effect. To begin with, this study intends to establish a indicator system of policy evaluation with the latest law, Administrative Measures for the Clinical Use of Antibacterial Drugs. Next, based on the Rough Set Theory and field investigation, we will develop a systematic model for evaluation of policy implementation with a focus on the assessment of the execution, effects and stakeholders’ response. Meanwhile, the Game Theory and the Complex Adaptive System Theory will be applied to analyze the implementation procedure and to explore its determinants. At last, based on the In-trees Archetype Generating Set, we will build a structural model of policy execution system to identify the key points in policy-making and practice. This research will develop new evaluation measures and models to appraise the policy implementation and influencing factors comprehensively and accurately, which will serve as scientific evidences for police-making.