我国2020-2050年养老机构需求研究——基于婚姻状态和家庭结构的预测
结题报告
批准号:
72104004
项目类别:
青年科学基金项目
资助金额:
20.0 万元
负责人:
李曼
依托单位:
学科分类:
社会治理与社会保障
结题年份:
2023
批准年份:
2021
项目状态:
已结题
项目参与者:
李曼
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中文摘要
机构养老是我国多层次养老服务体系的重要组成部分。目前养老机构存在服务供给总量短缺与结构矛盾并存的问题,主要原因在于对未来需求把握不足。迄今鲜有研究科学预测未来我国养老机构的需求。本项目基于前期研究发现,入住养老机构老年人口比重增加伴随空巢老人家庭的增加,不同年龄、性别、城乡居住地的入住养老机构老年人的婚姻状态存在差异。因而本项目进一步验证婚姻状态、家庭结构对老年人入住养老机构的影响,为预测未来养老机构的需求提供一个新的思路。本项目将基于人口普查微观数据及相关社会调查数据,全面描述过去30年入住养老机构老年人婚姻状态和家庭结构变化,探索婚姻状态、家庭结构对老年人入住养老机构的作用机制。首次尝试运用ProFamy多维家庭人口预测模型根据人口的不同状态,预测2020-2050年入住养老机构老年人的数量和结构。本项目将为科学预测养老机构需求,配置合理的床位数量和照护力量提供决策支持。
英文摘要
The elderly care institution is an important part of the multi-level elderly care system in China. At present, the problems of insufficient provision and structural contradiction are both existed, which mainly caused by the shortage of knowledge of its future demand. However, few studies have predicted the future demand of elderly care institution in China. On the basis of this current research proposal, we found that the increase of the number and proportion of the aging population living in institutions, as well as with the increase of “nest elderly household” in last three decades and the marital status of elderly living in institution is various between male and female, and between rural and urban. Therefore, our study assumes the marital status and household structure may be used as the key variables to estimate the future number and structure of elderly who will live in elderly care institution. This study will be based on the previous census and relevant social survey data to comprehensively describe the marital status and family structure of the elderly in the past 30 years, and to explore the role of marital status and family structure on the elderly who transfer to living in elderly care institution. ProFamy multi-dimensional family population prediction model will be applied to predict the number and structure of the elderly living in elderly care institution from 2020 to 2050. This project will provide decision support for the scientific prediction of the need of elderly care institution and the allocation of reasonable beds and nursing forces.
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DOI:--
发表时间:2022
期刊:社会保障评论
影响因子:--
作者:李曼
通讯作者:李曼
DOI:--
发表时间:2022
期刊:东北大学学报(社会科学版)
影响因子:--
作者:李曼
通讯作者:李曼
国内基金
海外基金