中国反避税制度效果评估:程度、机制和改革策略

构建合作共赢的国际税收体系是税收治理现代化体系框架中的重要组成部分，强化反避税管理以促进BEPS成果的转化则是国际税收治理体系的重要内容。现有关于反避税制度对跨国公司利润转移的程度、中间机制和参与税收竞争等方面的研究还较为不足，该问题具有显著的学术价值和重要的政策含义。本项目在传统ZWM税收竞争模型中加入反避税制度的代理变量，刻画了单边和双边反避税政策及税率工具的协同使用对吸引跨国资本的作用机理。利用空间动态面板系统GMM法和国家企业所得税数据对理论模型进行实证检验，总结反避税制度对国家税基的外溢效应和各国参与横向税收竞争的规律；利用准自然实验方法和跨国公司财务数据研究反避税制度对跨国公司利润转移的影响程度和规模；利用Probit模型和跨国公司专利数据实证检验反避税制度对跨国公司无形资产转让定价避税机制的影响。本研究通过理论分析模型和实证检验结果为中国未来国际税收治理提供更有前瞻性的建议。

Construction of international tax system is an important part of the tax governance modernization system.Strengthening the anti-avoidance tax system to promote the transformation of BEPS is an important part of international tax governance system. There are no systematic researches on the anti-avoidance system in the aspects of base protection, participation in international tax competition and attracting foreign investment. Therefore, this question has a significant academic value and important policy meaning. This project systematically evaluates the policy effect of Chinese anti-avoidance tax system in protecting tax base and participating in international tax competition. We use detailed data of national corporate income tax and tax rate to empirically test the theoretical model and study the spillover effect of anti-avoidance system on national tax base and the law of participating in national horizontal tax competition; Using a quasi-natural experimental method to test the impact of anti-avoidance policy on the profit shifting of multinational companies, the scale of anti-avoidance and the annual change trend; Using detailed data of national corporate income tax to analyze the spillover effect of anti-avoidance tax system on tax base and the law of participating in national horizontal tax competition.We also empirically test the impact of anti-avoidance tax system on the tax avoidance mechanism of transfer pricing in intangible assets of multinationals based on financial data and patent data. According to the theoretical model and empirical results, we provide more targeted policy suggestions for China to better participate in international tax governance.