南极冰架变化机制及影响研究

南极冰架和海冰是全球气候或冰冻圈系统中的关键组件。南极冰架稳定性是估算未来海平面上升不确定性的一个关键要素，其对南极海冰变化的影响尚不确定。本项目将综合利用遥感观测和数值模拟围绕南极冰架和海冰开展以下研究：利用多源卫星遥感数据，精确估算过去几十年全南极冰架的变化情况，定量评估南极冰架的稳定性；结合大气、海洋关键要素观测数据和模型产品以及海冰产品，分析这些因素与表征冰架稳定性因子（即冰架厚度、范围和流速）之间的相关性，探究影响冰架稳定性的主要因素并深入机理分析；建立冰架消融时空模型，优化海冰模式使之体现冰架消融引起的淡水输入海洋的事实，结合海冰模式、气候模式和冰架区域模式探究南极不同地区冰架与海冰相互作用与联系机制。

The ice shelf and sea ice are two key components in the Antarctic climate or cryospheric system. The mechanism of Antarctic ice shelf retreat is a key factor for the uncertainty in predicting sea level rise and Antarctic sea ice change. In this research, remote sensing and numeric modeling methods will be combined to: 1) precisely evaluate the change and stability of several typical Antarctic ice shelves in the past decades by using multi-source remote sensing image; 2)Base on the observation data and modeling results of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, analyze the correlation between these factors and the ice stability factors such as ice shelf thickness, range and velocity. Investigate the mechanism of the main factors which impact the stability of the ice shelf; 3) establish a spatio-temporal model for ice shelf melting, refine sea ice model to include the fact of ice shelf melting induced pure water entering into the ocean, investigate the linkage and the interaction between Antarctic ice shelf and sea ice in different regions of Antarctica, including how the ice shelf melting influence the surrounding ocean/sea ice, and the possible impact of local climate on the dynamics of ice shelf.