基于多级时变GERT和贝叶斯方法的易腐食品质量可持续性管理优化研究

本项目从多学科融合和交叉研究的角度，以易腐食品质量形成和质量改进为研究重点，围绕框架搭建、机制设计、管理优化和决策集成四个层面的一体化研究，将多级时变GERT、贝叶斯方法与多目标优化方法集成应用于易腐食品全生命周期质量可持续性管理。首先，应用多级时变GERT方法，探讨易腐食品全生命周期质量形成网络架构、及质量可持续性管理参数的动态推演机制；其次，应用贝叶斯方法，探讨质量改进决策植入质量形成网络的集成机制；然后，应用多目标优化方法，探讨质量可持续性管理多维目标权衡的易腐食品质量改进决策优化方案；最后，将以上研究进行串联和整合，开展易腐食品全生命周期质量可持续性风险管理和质量循环改进集成设计研究。通过本项目的研究，为易腐食品全生命周期质量可持续性管理新思路的实现提供可行路径和先行应用，为易腐食品供应链上的质量管理多元主体提供智力支持和决策依据，丰富我国易腐食品质量管理优化的理论与方法范畴。

From the perspective of multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary integration, this project focuses on the quality forming and quality improvement of perishable food, and explores the sequential four research aspects, i.e. framework construction, mechanism design, decision-making optimization, and management integration. The multi-echelon time-varying GERT (Graphic Evaluation and Review Technique), the Bayesian approach, and the multi-objective optimization approach are jointly employed and applied to the perishable food full-lifecycle quality sustainability management, which involves theories, models, methods and empirical studies..First, the multi-echelon time-varying GERT is employed to construct the architecture of the perishable food full-lifecycle quality forming network, and to explore the dynamic calculation mechanisms of the quality sustainability parameters. Second, the Bayesian approach is employed to explore the integration mechanism of quality improvement decision making and quality forming network by implanting the Bayesian approach into the GERT. Third, the multi-objective optimization approach is employed to explore the tradeoffs among the multiple quality-sustainability objectives by optimizing the quality improvement decision making on perishable food. Finally, the above studies are combined to explore the integrated design of quality sustainability risk management and quality improvement throughout the full lifecycle of perishable food..We hope this project can find feasible path for the realization of the new idea of perishable food full-lifecycle quality sustainability management, provide intellectual support and decision-making basis for the multiple stakeholders in the perishable food supply chain, and enrich the theoretical and methodological scopes of perishable food quality management optimization in China.