随着高速铁路技术的快速发展，高速列车运行面临复杂设备技术构成、高强度运行工况、服役性能非线性加速退化、大范围运行环境变化以及人因等多重不确定性因素影响，系统运行风险显著加大；传统铁路系统的基于小批量统计样本、各影响因素独立的风险评估方法和应急指挥等风险控制方法已无法适应高速列车的迫切需求与挑战。本项目将以高速列车运行风险安全可控为目标，围绕多重不确定性因素和运行安全大数据下的高速列车运行风险要素相互作用关系、动态演化规律和系统调控机理关键科学问题展开研究，在风险“辨识-评估-控制”统一框架下，研究高速列车运行风险辨识与重要度分析、复杂工况下关键部件运行风险评估、复杂耦合作用下列车系统运行风险评估，及基于时空风险解耦的列车群运行风险调控等理论方法，形成适合高速铁路系统运行特点的高速列车运行风险评估与调控理论方法体系，为全面提升高速列车运行风险防控水平、建立风险主动预防模式提供坚实的理论基础。

With the rapid development of high speed railway technology, we have to face the complex technical composition of equipment, high-intensity operating conditions, nonlinear accelerated degradation of working state, changes of operation environment in a large scale, and multiple uncertainties including human factors. These challenges may lead to significant increase in the operating risk of high speed rail systems. Traditional risk assessment and control algorithms for railway systems, such as small-sample-size statistical methods and independence-based risk mitigation approaches are no longer able to accommodate the modern requirements and challenges. Therefore, focusing on the safety, reliability, and controllability of high speed trains, this project studies the dynamic evolution laws of various risk factors, their potential coupling effects, as well as the systematic control strategy of high speed rail systems considering multiple uncertainties and big data in operation. Under the unified framework of risk “identification - assessment - control”, the research tasks of this project include: operating risk identification and importance analysis of high speed trains, operating risk assessment of key components under complex operating conditions, systematic operating risk assessment theory of high speed trains under dynamic coupling effects, operating risk control algorithms of a group of high-speed trains based on temporal-spatial risk decoupling methodology. A theoretical methodology system for high speed train operating risk assessment and control will be developed out of this project, which will provide a solid theoretical foundation for active risk prevention and control of high speed rail networks in China and abroad.