发冠卷尾种群数量变化及其对气候变化的响应

气候变化在全球范围内影响了很多物种的种群动态，一些物种难以适应这种快速地变化，种群数量显著下降。了解气候变化是否影响了种群数量的下降，以及其所作用的生活史环节和关键途径，对发展相关生态学理论和提出科学的保护对策具有重要价值。然而，目前相关的研究仍十分稀少，且多集中在欧美地区。河南董寨国家级自然保护区内的发冠卷尾（Dicrurus hottentottus），自2008年至今经历了逐年升高的年均温，后代和成鸟返回率降低，种群数量显著下降。本研究拟利用该基于个体标记的长期研究系统探究气候变化对种群数量下降的潜在影响，首先通过“滑动窗口期法”确定影响个体繁殖时间、繁殖成功率和存活率的气候因子及其所作用的时期，进而通过“结构方程模型”检验气候如何通过影响个体的繁殖时间来决定其繁殖成效，以及气候如何影响个体的存活率，从而最终导致种群数量的动态变化。本研究的开展将增进人类对物种应对气候变化机制的认识。

Climate change is now influencing the population dynamics of many species around the world. Some species are not able to adapt to this rapid change quickly enough, and so their population sizes are declining. Understanding the role of climate change in population decline, which life-history traits are affected and the critical pathways by which this happens is essential for developing relevant ecological theories and viable conservation strategies. However, comprehensive studies in this field are rare and extremely concentrate in Europe and North America. Hair-crested drongos (Dicrurus hottentottus) in Dongzhai National Nature Reserve have experienced increasing annual mean temperature across the years since 2008. In this population, rates of young recruitment and adult survival are decreasing, which has led to a population decline. Using this long-term study system of exceptionally-detailed individual-based field data, we plan to explore the potential effects of climate change on population decline. We firstly identify the important climate variables and their relevant period which affect breeding phenology, reproductive success and individual survival rate, respectively, with ‘sliding window approach’. We will then construct ‘structural equal models’ to investigate how climate influences breeding phenology and consequently determine reproduce success, and also how climate influence individual survival rate, and hence how the population dynamics are affected. Our study will improve the knowledge of how species adapt to climate change.