基于浴缸模型的城市通勤交通分析

高峰时段的城市通勤需求管理是现代城市交通管理面临的挑战之一，居民出行时间的集中性、出行区域的密集性和交通设施通行能力的有限性，导致早晚高峰通勤时段极易发生交通拥堵，如果拥堵状况加剧还会出现交通网络的超级拥堵现象。针对居民通勤出行需求的时空属性和路网通行能力的限制，本项目基于浴缸模型，研究在交通均衡准则下城市通勤交通中居民通勤距离对于拥堵演化和均衡状态的影响，探讨不同通勤距离假设条件下的浴缸模型适用性及均衡状态下到达率-流量的函数关系；考虑城市区域边界的通行能力限制，探讨网络超级拥堵的形成和消散机理，分析交通区域的运行特征，研究出行者的出发时刻选择行为；结合路网边界通行能力设置，探讨拥挤收费和可交易路票等交通需求管理策略，建立基于浴缸模型的城市通勤交通优化模型，求解相应的系统最优方案，分析两类方案下的均衡条件差异和均衡解唯一性等问题。

Peak-hour commuting problem is one of the most challenging problem of urban cities. The highly concentrated travel demand and traffic areas, as well as the limited capacity of traffic facilities, lead to serious traffic congestion and even hypercongestion during peak hours. Based on the temporal-spatial features of commuters’ trips, the bathtub model is adopted to analyse the impact of commuters’ trip lengths on the evolution of traffic congestion and on the resulting equilibrium. We also explore how the assumption on commuters’ trip lengths affects the tractability of bathtub model, and whether the proportional relationship between arrival rate and flow holds in equilibrium. We further investigate how the finite capacity to exit the bathtub affects the occurrence and dissolution of hypercongestion in the bathtub model, and the relationship of hypercongestion and the efficiency of traffic facilities. Traffic regulation measures like congestion pricing and tradable credits are designed to alleviate congestion and to achieve social optimum in peak hours. The market equilibrium conditions in tradable credits are further discussed, as well as the uniqueness of traffic equilibrium.