基于“路径依赖”理论的羌族聚落灾后政策影响机制及空间策略研究

“5.12”汶川地震给羌族聚落造成了毁灭性的破坏，灾后重建至今十余年的时间，羌族聚落已从物质重建迈向振兴发展的新阶段，聚落发展所呈现的积极或消极现状与重建政策的制定和实施密切关联。本课题以羌族聚落可持续发展为目标，引入制度经济学的“路径依赖”理论，尝试探索多种政策对不同类型重建聚落所形成的影响和效应。通过文献分析和田野调查，总结各类政策因素与聚落之间的因果关系，并借助社会学的QCA定性分析方法对复杂因果变量进行测量运算，建立灾后政策对聚落影响的机制模型。同时，通过从模型结果判别政策对聚落影响呈现的两种反馈效应，结合路径依赖的两种表现形态，总结哪些政策可保持连续性并形成“制度依赖”，哪些政策需要及时调整避免形成“锁定状态”。最后，结合以上科学分析和逻辑归纳的结论，进一步落实和实践乡村规划和空间设计，为传统聚落空间的保护和优化提供明确的指导方向，为羌族聚落的全面发展建立从宏观到具体的实施路径。

The "5.12" Wenchuan earthquake has caused devastating damage to the Qiang settlements. In more than ten years since the post disaster reconstruction, the Qiang settlements have moved from material reconstruction to a new stage of revitalization and development. The positive or negative status of the settlement development is closely related to the formulation and implementation of the reconstruction policy. This paper aims at the sustainable development of Qiang settlements, introduces the "path-dependence" theory of institutional economics, and tries to explore the influence and effect of various policies on various types of reconstruction settlements. Through literature analysis and field investigation, this paper summarizes the causal relationship between various policy factors and settlements, and uses the qualitative analysis .method of sociology QCA to measure and calculate the complex causal variables, so as to establish the mechanism model of the impact of post disaster policies on settlements. At the same time, by distinguishing the two feedback effects of policy on settlement from the results of the model and combining the two manifestations of path dependence, this paper summarizes which policies can maintain continuity and form "institutional dependence" and which policies need to be adjusted in time to avoid "lock-in state". Finally, combined with the above scientific analysis and logical conclusion, further implement and practice rural planning and space design, provide a clear direction for the protection and optimization of traditional settlement space, and establish a macro to specific implementation path for the comprehensive development of Qiang settlements.