基于人际接触网络的新冠疫情城市精细化防疫研究

2019年末我国爆发了由急性呼吸道综合症冠状病毒2型引发的新冠肺炎疫情，截止目前，疫情已蔓延至全球223个国家和地区，超过1亿人感染，给世界人民的生产生活带来前所未有的影响。为阻止疫情传播，世界各国纷纷出台各种类型的城市封锁措施。虽然严格的出行管制措施有效阻止了疫情的蔓延，却带来严重经济损失。因此改善当前城市不合理的全局化防疫政策，提出一套更具针对性和精细化的防疫策略至关重要。为实现该目标，本项目首先通过构建时序型人际接触网络建立了人际接触行为与疫情城市内传播的相关性，并提取五个关键拓扑指标实现疫情传播的定性分析。接着，基于空间型人际接触网络对疫情在城市内的传播模式进行定量分析和物理建模。最后，通过构建时空混合型人际接触网络，有效识别城市对疫情传播有显著影响的关键区域，并提出三种不同的精细化防疫措施。本项目有效改善了当前的防疫政策，为新冠疫情以及其它重大传染病防疫工作提供了坚实的理论基础。

The epidemic of covid-19 caused by SARS-COV-2 began in China in the end of 2019. Till now, the pandemic has spread to 223 countries and regions around the world, and more than 100 million get infected during the period, which affects the production and lives of people around the world. To inhibit the spread of covid-19 effectively, different kinds of city-level lockdown measures are proposed by governments around the world. However, strict travel restrain measures could inhibit the spread of covid-19 effectively at the cost of huge economic losses. Therefore, it’s crucial to improve the current unreasonable city-level epidemic prevention policies, and then propose a more targeted and fine prevention measures. In order to achieve this goal, the project first establishes the relation between social contact behaviors of people and the spreading of epidemic in cities by constructing a temporal social contact network. Then we propose five key topology-based indexes to analyze the spread of covid-19 qualitatively. We next analyze the spreading pattern of covid-19 quantitively and propose a corresponding physical model based on spatial social contact network. Finally, we discriminate the key region in a city that has a significant effect on the spreading of covid-19 through constructing a temporal-spatial social contact network, and then propose three different fine epidemic prevention measures. The project improves current prevention policies effectively, and provides lots of theoretical insights into the prevention works for covid-19 and other major infectious diseases.