基于LCA的内蒙古畜牧生产碳水和土地资源环境成本分析-以鄂温克族自治旗和四子王旗为例

近年我国牛肉消费量增加，引发了对于牛肉生产相关碳水和土地资源环境成本的极大关注。作为重要牛肉产区的内蒙古草原牧区，尚没有开展对牛肉生产资源环境影响的综合量化评估。本研究率先引入全生命周期分析方法（LCA），选择分别具有东部湿润草甸和西部干旱草地代表性的鄂温克族自治旗和四子王旗开展如下工作：首先，采用过程LCA（PLCA）和经济投入产出LCA（EIO-LCA）方法，分别对养殖户和区域产业层面牛肉产品碳水和土地资源这三方面的资源环境成本进行定量评价；通过LCA热点分析和结构方程模型（SEM），找出改善牛肉生产资源环境成本的关键节点，提出科学建议；此外，采用间接LCA（CLCA）方法预测未来市场需求、饲草料供给和经营模式变化情境下当地肉牛产业资源环境影响。本研究对减轻当地生态环境负担，优化资源配置，实现畜牧业可持续发展具有重要的现实意义，也对我国草原牧区畜牧生产LCA后续研究开展提供经验和参考。

In recent years, China's beef production and consumption have increased year by year, which has raised concerns about the cost of carbon water and land resources related to beef production.. As an important beef producing area in Inner Mongolia, there has not been a quantitative evaluation study on the impact of resources and environment in the whole life cycle of beef production. This study intends to select Inner Mongolia Ewenke Autonomous Banner and Siziwang Banner as research areas, and carry out the following work: Firstly, using PLCA and EIO-LCA methods, analysis the resource and environmental costs of carbon water and land resources of beef products at the level of farmers and regional industries were evaluated quantitatively of beef cattle production in the level of herding households and regional industrial respectively. Through LCA hotspot analysis and structural equation model (SEM), identify the key sections to improve the resource efficiency and reduce environmental burden in beef cattle production, and propose scientific recommendations in line with local conditions. In addition, the CLCA method will be used to simulate the future resource and environmental impacts of beef cattle industry，in the context of forage supply，marcket demand and management model changes. This project has important practical significance for reducing the burden of local ecological environment, optimizing the allocation of livestock resources, improving the competitiveness of local pasture animal husbandry industry, and realizing the sustainable development of grassland animal husbandry. At the same time, it also provides experience and reference for the follow-up research on the whole life cycle assessments of livestock production in China's grassland pastoral areas.