粮食主产区耕地利用可持续集约化的多尺度评价、影响机制与调控研究

关于耕地集约利用、可持续利用等成果已十分深入且丰富，但国际上可持续集约化思想在我国耕地利用领域仍未得到足够重视。耦合耕地利用的集约化、可持续化两个侧面形成对耕地利用可持续集约化的科学认识成为新时代保障粮食安全和推进生态文明建设的战略要求。本项目探索性提出并界定耕地利用的可持续集约化概念内涵，以山东、辽宁等粮食主产区为例，基于农户、市县、省域等多尺度构建理论分析框架，综合运用农户调查数据、统计数据、遥感解译数据等测度不同尺度下的耕地利用可持续集约化水平，集成基于扎根理论的质性研究方法、定性比较分析以及地理探测器模型、分层线性模型、结构方程模型、有序多分类Logistic模型等定量方法构建混合研究方法体系，剖析不同尺度下耕地利用可持续集约化转型的主控因素及作用机理，并结合区域资源利用和经济社会发展的阶段性特征，以协同保障粮食安全、践行生态文明战略为目标提出优化调控措施。

Great research results of intensive use and sustainable of cultivated land use have been gained deeply, but the international sustainable intensification thought has not been paid enough attention in the field of cultivated land use in China. The scientific cognition formed by coupling the intensification and sustainable of cultivated land use, which has become a strategic requirement for promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the New Era. Taking Shandong Province, Liaoning Province and other areas of major grain producing as examples, this research project exploratory proposes and defines the concept connotation of sustainable intensification of cultivated land use, and the theoretical analysis framework is constructed from the multi-scales of farmer, city, county and province. Meanwhile, there are multi-sources data used for measuring the level of sustainable intensification of cultivated land use at different scales, which include farming households survey data, government statistical data and remote sensing interpretation data and so on. In order to analyze the main control factors and mechanism of sustainable intensification of cultivated land use transition at different scales, we construct a mixed research method system that is composed of qualitative research methods based on Grounded Theory, Qualitative Comparative Analysis, Geographical Detector Model, Hierarchical Linear Regression, Structural Equation Model, and Ordinal Logistic Model. Overall, combined with the periodic characteristics of regional resource use and economic and social development, this research puts forward optimized control measures aiming at the coordinated guarantee of food security and the implementation of ecological civilization strategy.