“30·60”双碳目标下我国能源转型的关键影响因素及其作用机理研究

能源转型事关我国能否安全、全面、协调、可持续发展的重大战略问题，是一个受多种因素影响的复杂系统，尤其是在“30·60”双碳目标条件下其中的公共政策、创新、重大事件如何影响我国能源转型以及如何采取相应的应对策略是国家相关部门日益迫切需要解决的重大问题。本项目将针对我国能源转型发展过程中所呈现的新形态、新问题与新风险，采用系统建模理论与实证研究方法，创新性地建立公共政策、创新、重大事件与能源转型的一般关系模型，深入研究在“30·60”双碳目标下这三种关键因素对我国能源转型的影响机理，并揭示能源转型的特征与模式，发现能源转型的演化规律与驱动机制，重点挖掘出各关键影响因素对能源转型的作用机理，找出通过能源转型来实现我国“30·60”双碳目标的优化路径，同时提出相应的对策。本项目研究可极大地丰富新时期能源发展理论，为我国完成可持续发展目标提供决策依据和有益参考。

The energy transition is a major strategic issue concerning whether China can develop safely, comprehensively, coordinately and sustainably. It is a complex system affected by many factors. Especially under the condition of the "30·60" double carbon target, how the public policy, innovation and major events affect China's energy transition and how to take corresponding countermeasures are the important issues that the relevant national departments need to solve urgently. Aiming at the new forms, new problems and new risks in the process of China's energy transition, this project will creatively establish a general relationship model between public policy, innovation, major events and energy transition by using system modelling theory and empirical research methods. At the same time, this project deeply studies the influence mechanism of these three critical factors on China's energy transition under the "30·60" dual carbon target. On this basis, the project will reveal the features and modes of the energy transition, discover the evolution law and driving mechanism of the energy transition, focus on the mechanism of key influencing factors on energy transition, find out the optimization path to achieve China's "30·60" dual carbon goal through the energy transition, and put forward corresponding countermeasures. This project research can greatly enrich the theory of energy development in the new period and provide a decision-making basis and useful reference for China to achieve sustainable development.