政府隐性担保、地方政府债务与系统性金融风险防范

中国当前面临的系统性金融风险主要来源于房地产部门、地方政府债务和金融部门，政府隐性担保起到了推波助澜的作用。这些部门紧密相连，一个部门风险的恶化可能会传染到其他部门，从而引发系统性金融风险。为了在防范系统性金融风险的同时，实现地方债务降杠杆、金融业对外开放等宏观政策目标，本项目拟在厘清系统性金融风险症结的基础上，由表及里地提出解决方案：首先，建立一个包含金融部门的DSGE模型，在模型中刻画银行杠杆顺周期的特性，同时引入政府隐性担保的机制，从而讨论政府隐性担保对银行机构杠杆率与风险承担的影响。其次，在模型中纳入地方政府土地融资行为，量化地方政府债务风险与金融风险互相交织的关系，详细地描述系统性金融风险的形成机制以及政策应对。最后，在模型中引入金融中介的开放，同时加入资本流动顺周期性的机制，综合考虑在政府隐性担保下金融业开放对系统性金融风险防范的影响。

At present, systemic financial risks in the Chinese economy mainly originate from the housing sector, local government debt and the financial sector. Government implicit guarantees play a role in fueling the flames. These sectors are closely linked, and the deterioration of risks in one sector may be transmitted to other sectors, thereby triggering systemic financial risks. In order to prevent systemic financial risks and also achieve macro policy goals such as lowering the leverage of local government debt and opening up the financial sector, this project intends to clarify the crux of systemic financial risks and then proposes solutions from the outside to the inside: First, establish a DSGE model that includes the financial sector, describe the pro-cyclical bank leverage in the model, and introduce the mechanism of government implicit guarantee to discuss the influence of government implicit guarantee on the leverage ratio and risk-taking of banking sector. Second, include land financing behavior of the local government in the model, and quantify the interdependence between local government debt and financial risk, and discuss in detail the formation process of systemic financial risks and policy responses. Finally, the opening of financial sector is introduced into the model, the setting of pro-cyclical capital flows is also included, and then comprehensively consider the effect of financial opening on systemic financial risk prevention under government implicit guarantees.