公众参与视角下中国对脆弱国家开展新型援助的效果评估 ——以阿富汗微观调研数据为例

传统援助“以钱生财”模式难以促进受援国经济内生增长逐步被以“互惠型合作援助”为主的新型援助模式所替代，而公众参与会为援助的推进带来显著影响。本课题从宏观到微观逐步厘清新型援助对脆弱国家的影响，并选择在地缘政治意义上较特殊的阿富汗作为脆弱国家代表进行深入分析。首先考察传统援助对脆弱国家GDP和TFP的影响并比较其差异。其次基于大量阿富汗民众的微观调研数据建立结构方程模型，评估中国对阿能源、资源和基础设施三类项目的援建效果，重点考察对民生的改善和“公众参与”所起到的中介作用。进而将公众群体加入多主体Senturion模型，模拟阿政府、企业与公众的行为并赋予权重，对援助实施效果及“一带一路”倡议未来的影响进行预测。上述研究建立了一个普适性研究框架，为发挥公众参与在区域治理中的重要作用、帮助脆弱国家寻找灾后经济内生增长路径、实现中国与受援国互利共赢、建设全球经济共同体和维护区域安全提供对策建议。

The traditional aid model is hard to facilitate the endogenous economic growth in the aid-recipient counties due to its “Money Generating” mode. It is gradually replaced by the by the new form of aid that is the "mutually beneficial cooperation” characterized, which is tremendously influenced by the public participation. This research emphasizes the impacts of new form aid on fragile states from both of the macro and micro perspectives. Furthermore, it employs Afghanistan, the landlocked and one of the most backward countries in the world as the representative of fragile states for the in-depth analysis. First, the effects of traditional aid on GDP and TFP in fragile countries are examined and compared. Second, in line with the large amount number of micro-survey data from Afghan people, a structural equation model was established to evaluate the effect of projects in energy sector, mining industry and infrastructure that cooperated with China. This is mainly in assessing the mediating effect on the improvement of people's livelihood and "public participation". Then, the Senturion model involving the official government, ethnic groups and individual in Afghanistan is established based on different policy scenarios. Hence, the impact of international aid from China and the implementation of “Belt and Road” initiative to the economic development and political security in Afghanistan are respectively assessed. The further influences of their implementation are also predicted. To sum up, this study has established a universal research framework, the scientific reference and countermeasures to the fragile states in exploring endogenous economic growth and maintaining the regional security in the post war era，which makes the “win-win” situation come into reality among China and recipient countries.