基于数据重采样的航空复杂装备产品质量特性组合建模及仿真验证

针对小样本情形下航空复杂装备产品质量特性非自适应建模精度低的难题，以航空复杂装备质量特性建模小样本数据问题为切入点，以Bootstrap重采样技术为手段，以质量特性组合建模为主线，围绕质量特性建模过程的关键问题：初始数据的重复试验设计、数据抽取的自适应加点策略、贝叶斯模型平均组合建模为研究内容，对航空复杂装备产品质量特性建模关键问题展开系列研究。首先，基于Bootstrap重采样技术对小样本数据进行数据抽，获取LHS重复试验设计样本数据；其次，基于航空复杂装备产品质量特性选点区域和加点策略研究，构建基于期望提高的加点自适应策略模型；然后，针对模型不确定性问题，构建基于贝叶斯模型平均方法的航空复杂装备产品质量特性组合建模策略；最后，基于有限元技术对质量特性组合模型方法进行精度验证，从而实现小样本数据下的航空复杂装备产品质量特性高稳健性要求。

This project aims at the problem of low precision of the non-adaptive modeling of aviation complex equipment products under the condition of small samples. Taking the small sample data problem of modeling the quality characteristics of aviation complex equipment as the starting point, Bootstrap resampling technology is used as the means, and the quality characteristics ensemble modeling is mainline, focusing on the key issues in the process of modeling the quality characteristics of aviation complex equipment products: repeated test design of parameter data, adaptive point addition strategy for data extraction, and Bayesian model average combination modeling is the research contents. A series of studies have been carried out on the modeling strategy of equipment product quality characteristics. Firstly, for the small sample data problem of the quality characteristics of aviation complex equipment products, the Bootstrap resampling method is adopted to the LHS repeated experimental design to solve the small sample data problem. Secondly, based on the research on the point selection area and the point addition strategy, a point addition strategy model based on the expectations improvement is constructed; then, based on the model uncertainty problem, build a Bayesian model averaging method for aerospace complex equipment product quality characteristics ensemble modeling strategy. Finally, based on the finite element, the technology verifies the accuracy of the combined model method for the quality characteristics of aviation complex equipment products. In order to achieve high robustness requirements for the quality characteristics of aviation complex equipment products under the uncertainty of small sample data and models.