双重需求不确定场景下城市客货共享运输协同优化研究

随着电子商务的迅速发展，货运需求激增，给城市物流运输系统带来了严峻挑战。与此同时，具有大容量的城市公共交通系统（如地铁和公交巴士）在非高峰时段却未得到充分利用。公共交通系统的剩余运力可以与货运共享，为发展城市客货共享运输和可持续交通提供了机会。过往的研究通常对公交系统和货运系统分开独立考虑，对客货共享运输系统内多主体的相互关系及多式融合协同缺乏科学认知与系统性的优化管理工具。本项目旨在通过建立客货共享运输一体化时空网络模型，在考虑客货运需求双重不确定以及公交和货运运营商多种合作或博弈情形下，对客货共享系统进行分析，并建立公交服务、货车专用服务网络以及客货共运协同的优化设计策略。本项目将利用香港相关公交和物流公司提供的数据，分析提炼客流与货流的时空分布特征，对客货共运系统的优化设计进行案例分析。研究成果为客货共运系统的有效运营提供理论和决策支持，从而促进“智慧城市”和“绿色城市”的实践。

With the rapid development of e-commerce, the demand for freight has soared, which has brought severe challenges to the urban transport and logistics systems. At the same time, urban public transport systems with large capacity (such as subways and buses) are indeed underutilized during off-peak hours. The spare capacity of the public transport system can be shared with freight, which provides opportunities for the development of an integrated passenger-freight transport system and more sustainable transport system. However, previous studies usually consider the public transport system and the freight transport system separately and independently, and lack scientific knowledge, optimization and management tools for the interrelationship and interaction between multiple entities, multi-modal integration and coordination, and systematic consideration in the integrated passenger-freight transport system. This project aims to establish an integrated time-space network model of the passenger-freight transport system in order to analyze the multi-agent passenger-freight integrated system, considering the double uncertainty of passenger and freight demands and the multiple cooperative or non-cooperative situations between public transport and freight operators. This project will further develop optimal design strategies for the public transport service network, truck dedicated service network, and passenger and freight co-modal transport in the context of a passenger-freight transport system. This project will also use the data provided by relevant Hong Kong public transport and logistics companies to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of passenger flow and freight flow, quantify the available system spatiotemporal capacities for passenger and freight transport, and conduct case study on the optimal design of the integrated passenger-freight transport system. The research outcomes will provide theoretical tools and decision-making support for the effective operation of the integrated passenger-freight transport system, thereby promoting the practice of “smart cities” and “green cities”.