中国发达地区入乡流动人口的空间格局和流动机制研究

在中国城镇化进入中后期和乡村发展转型的背景下，一些发达地区乡村的入乡流动人口已具有一定规模，且呈快速增长趋势。这一群体及其所引发的多种要素向乡村的流入，会对城乡融合和乡村振兴产生影响，具有重要的战略意义。本项目以江苏省苏南地区为研究区，利用多元数据，综合GIS空间分析、社会网络分析、地理探测器、数理模型分析、质性分析等手段，对入乡流动人口的空间格局和流动机制进行系统性探索。重点研究内容包括：（1）全面揭示入乡流动人口迁移和空间分布格局的演变和特征，建立宏观系统和微观个体的联系，在不同深度和尺度认识其空间规律。（2）构建包括三个尺度的入乡人口流动驱动模型，探索不同尺度影响因子及其互动关系，综合质性分析结果，获得对于机制的多层面认识。研究结果将在理论层面填补当前中国人口流动领域的研究局限，拓宽国际人口流动领域的相关知识；在实践层面拓展决策部门对于城镇化的认识，更全面地理解以人为主体的乡村振兴。

In the context of China’s urbanization entering the middle and late stages and rural revitalization, some villages in developed areas of China are no longer simply the origins of out-migrants, but also the destinations of in-migrants. In these areas, in-rural migrants (population holding urban hukou and nonlocal rural hukou who enter the countryside for work and living, including urban-rural migrants and rural-rural migrants) have reached a certain size and are growing rapidly. This group will influence the distribution of urban and rural population, and the influx of various factors into rural areas caused by the group will have impacts on urban-rural integration and rural revitalization, which has important strategic significance. This research project jumps out of the rural-urban migrants that are generally concerned by the academic circle, and focuses on the in-rural migrants. Based on multivariate data including census data, survey questionnaire data, mobile signaling data, field survey and in-depth interview, this research project takes the southern Jiangsu province as research area, and integrates research methods including GIS spatial analysis, social network analysis, geo-detector analysis, mathematical model analysis and qualitative analysis to explore the spatial pattern and mechanism of in-rural migrants in developed areas of China systematically. The key research contents include: (1) reveal the evolution and characteristics of spatial distribution pattern of in-rural migrants to establish the relationship between macro systems and micro individuals, and understand the regularities of in-rural migrants at different scales. (2) construct models of in-rural migrants at macro-, meso-, and micro-scales to explore the differences and interactions of influential factors at different scales. It is expected that the research findings will fill in the research gap of the field of migrants in China and broaden the relevant knowledge in the field of migration in the international academic circle. In addition, it will expand the understanding of urbanization and people-oriented rural revitalization at the practical level, which will provide theoretical support and practical guidance for policy-makers in China.