市民化对地方政府教育投入的影响机理与政策设计研究

地方政府教育投入是国家教育投入的主体，直接关系到国家的教育质量、人才培养乃至未来经济社会长期发展水平，因此明确地方政府教育投入的影响因素，进而设计有效提高地方政府教育投入水平的政策，具有重要的理论和现实意义。现有研究主要停留在财政分权对地方政府教育投入的影响上，而本项目从不同规模城市之间存在市民化进程差异的现实出发，证明市民化是影响地方政府教育投入的重要因素。在此基础上，立足于流动人口和地方政府各自最优化选择及博弈互动行为，构建理论模型阐释市民化影响地方政府教育投入的机制，并综合使用微观个体、企业和宏观城市层面数据，以中国实施的户籍制度改革政策作为外生冲击，运用因果识别方法实证评估市民化对地方政府教育投入的影响方向和程度，并验证影响机制。结合理论和实证两类研究结论，提出有效提高地方政府教育投入的政策设计思路和建议，并使用蒙特卡洛模拟和机器学习估计推进市民化提高地方政府教育投入的长期效果。

Local government's educational spending is a major part of national education investment, which promotes a country’s education quality, talent cultivation and the long-term economic and social development. Therefore, to reach to policy refinement, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the determinants of local government's educational investment. The existing research mainly focuses on the impact of fiscal decentralization on local government’s educational expenditure. Whereas this project basically starts from the regional disparity in the process of citizenization, and proves that citizenization is an important factor for the spending. According to the Optimal Choice and the Game Interactive Behavior of floating population and the local government, the project constructs a theoretical model to explain the influence mechanism of citizenization on the local government’s educational grant. We discover that the population effect brought by citizenization increases the local government educational funding. Based on the data at the individual, firm and city-level, it is taken China's household registration reform policy as exogenous shock. Moreover, Causal Identification is employed to assess the impact degree of citizenization on the educational investment and verify the authenticity of the population effect. Combined with the conclusions of theoretical and empirical research, the project puts forward effective policy recommendations. Last but not least, Monte Carlo simulation and machine learning simulation are testified the feasibility and effectiveness of citizenization for boosting the local government’s educational investment Project.