面向老年人的出行特征分析及公交供给服务评价

随着中国人口增长速率放缓和人均寿命的延长，老龄化已经成为我国社会发展的趋势。多个学科从不同角度对老年人群体进行了研究，其中，老年人出行特征逐渐被学者所关注。目前，主要有两种方式获得老年人出行数据。第一，通过调查问卷的方式虽然可以获得老年人的个人信息和活动数据，但是很难获得大量且精确的出行信息。第二，移动智能终端可以获得精确的出行信息但是很难获得出行人的相关信息。本项研究拟采用老年人智能卡数据作为主要的数据源，构建基于老年人出行特征的研究体系，提出研究模型和方法。主要研究内容包括：（1）基于出行数据的空间划分方法；（2）识别老年人的空间分布；（3）构建老年人区域间出行模型。最后，在以上研究的基础中寻找规律，建立面向老年人的公交评价方法，改善老年人的公交出行环境。本项研究可以为政府和交通部门提供技术支持和服务，促进提升公共交通对老年人的服务质量，为构建老年人友好型社会做出贡献。

Along with the slow growth population and raised average life expectancy in China, population ageing has become the trend of society development for our country. Many researchers from multiple academic disciplines made effort for the elderly study from various points of view. The elderly travel behavior as one of research directions has gradually attracted many researchers’ attentions. Currently, there are two ways to collect the elderly travel data. First, although personal information and travel information can be collected by questionnaire, it is hard to collect large and precise survey data because of labor, time and bad memory, data quality of travel information cannot be guaranteed. Second, mobile smart devices has able to track precise location and time information. However, this kind of data lack of personal information. The proposed project adopts smart cards data of the elderly as the data source, carry out a research framework of the elderly characteristics and propose research model and methods. The main research content includes: (1) a method is proposed to partition space according to the travel data; (2) a model is built to identify the elderly spatial distribution; (3) a travel model of the elderly between regions is estimated. At last, explore the travel pattern from the above results and build models for public transport evaluation to improve the public transport performance for the elderly. The proposed project provides technical and service support for government and transport department, facilitates development of public transport to improve the quality for the elderly and makes contribution to build an elderly-friendly society.