基于综合模型模拟平台的黄土高原地膜覆盖主粮作物生产可持续性研究

黄土高原是我国重要的地膜覆盖栽培旱作农业区。为了研究降雨资源刚性约束和气候变化双重背景下，黄土高原地膜覆盖主粮作物生产的可持续性，本项目首先利用Google Earth Engine平台遥感影像数据和机器学习分类方法获取黄土高原地膜覆盖总面积和春玉米马铃薯种植面积的时空分布；再以此作为基础数据图层和其它多源数据构成驱动数据库；然后基于改进版的RZWQM2模型构建“旱区主要粮食作物多源数据综合模拟平台”；最后基于综合模拟平台，结合未来气候降尺度数据，阐明不同区域地膜覆盖春玉米和马铃薯的增产潜力和限制性因子，探究保证作物产量、优化资源利用效率和维持土壤生产能力多目标条件下的地膜覆盖种植模式，提出应对未来气候变化负面影响的管理措施，实现黄土高原地膜覆盖主粮作物生产的可持续发展。本研究是将信息技术最新成果与传统农业水土工程试验研究相结合的一次有益尝试，将在一定程度上扩展学科领域、丰富学科内涵。

The Loess Plateau is an important dry-farming area featured with plastic film mulching cropping in China. It is necessary to investigate the sustainability of film-mulched staple crop production on the Loess Plateau under the dual pressures of rigid restraint of limited precipitation and negative influences of future climate change. In this project, we will first identify the spatial and temporal distributions of the total areas of film-mulched fields and the individual areas of film-mulched spring corn and potato, based on the satellite remote sensing data of the Google Earth Engine and the machine learning classification methods. Then, these distribution data will be used as a fundamental data layer to construct the basic driving database with other kinds of data. Third, a multi-source integrated simulation platform will be established for dry-farming crop production in arid areas of China, based on a modified version of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2). Then, combining the simulation platform and the downscaled future weather data obtained from different global change models, we will illuminate the increasing potential and limiting factors of yields of film-mulched spring maize and potato in different areas. The optimal film-mulching farming modes will be explored, which could simultaneously satisfy the multi-objectives of guaranteeing crop yield, optimizing resource utilization, and maintaining soil productivity. Finally, the best management practices will be provided to alleviate the negative influences of climate change so as to realize the sustainability of film-mulched staple crop production on the Loess Plateau. This project is an important attempt to combine the latest IT techniques with traditional field experiments in the agricultural soil and water engineering, with an expectation to expand the fields and enrich the contents of the discipline to some extent.