气候变化对东海鱼类种群动力学的影响研究

作为中国海洋生产力最高的海域，东海在我国渔业产业中具有重要的地位。近年来，由于气候变化影响日益显著，东海渔业呈现出鱼类资源衰竭、荒漠化等恶化趋势，经济损失巨大。目前，国内外关于气候变化对海洋鱼类动力学影响的模型研究还很少，而海洋工作者所用的主要是统计分析方法，不能很好地揭示鱼类种群演化的内在机理及气候变化对其长期演变趋势的影响。本项目拟基于对我国东海渔业环境和资源调查数据的深度统计分析，针对气候变化对海洋鱼类影响的不同情形，提出若干由不同类型随机过程驱动的随机海洋鱼类单种群或食物链系统动力学模型，研究气候变化对鱼类种群动力学演化的影响；在此基础上，构建具有气候变化信息的海洋鱼类空间动力学模型，研究气候变化影响下鱼类种群时空分布格局的演变机理，评估气候变化对东海鱼类资源量、分布及其演变趋势的影响，发展和探讨对其进行可持续开发的最优化理论，为从事东海渔业资源管理的海洋工作者提供可靠的数学依据。

As the most productive sea area in China, the East China Sea plays an important role in the fishery industry of our country. In recent years, due to the increasingly significant impact of climate change, the fishery in the East China Sea has shown a deteriorating trend such as the depletion of fish resource and desertification, resulting in huge economic losses. At present, there are few studies on the dynamic model of the impact of climate change on marine fish at home and abroad. The methods used by marine workers are mainly statistical analysis, which cannot reveal the internal mechanism of marine fish population evolution and the impact of climate change on its long-term evolution trend. Based on the deep statistical analysis of survey data on the environment and resources of the fishery in the East China Sea, in this project, we will put forward some stochastic single species or food chain fish dynamics model driven by different types of random process according to the situations of the impact of climate change on marine fish. We will study the influence of climate change on the dynamics of the evolution of fish population using these models. Based on above, we construct marine fish spatial dynamics model with climate change information, study the influence of climate change on the evolution mechanism of spatial and temporal distribution pattern of fish populations, assess the impact of climate change on the abundance, distribution and evolution of fish stocks in the East China Sea. Furthermore, develop and discuss the optimization theory of its sustainable development. Our research can provide reliable mathematical basis for marine workers engaged in the management of fishery resources in the East China Sea.