尾矿坝溃灾泥流运移机制及其全寿命周期预测模型研究

我国尾矿年排超12亿吨，现存尾矿库7800座、风险防控形势复杂严峻，溃坝灾害应急基础理论技术需求导向突出。本项目基于两相流理论与地灾泥石流领域研究进展，瞄准尾矿坝溃灾应急背后泥流运移机制基础科学问题，采用“案例分析、工程调研、室内试验、相似模拟、理论分析、数值仿真”相结合的研究方案，引入旋转水槽试验、PIV粒子图像测速系统、SPH算法、无人机遥感等前沿技术，通过典型溃灾案例剖析与室内正交试验研究揭示尾砂级配、溃灾模式等因素与泥流物理特性的关联规律；研制试验模型深入研究颗粒输移规律、固液相分界粒径及其相互作用机制；基于固液相本构与SPH算法提出考虑地形因素的尾砂泥流运移模拟预测方法，并构建面向溃灾应急决策的工程应用技术框架。预期成果应用场景可贯穿尾矿库规划设计-施工建设-生产运营-闭库治理全寿命周期，为选址论证、扩容加高、应急处置、灾情研判等环节提供理论依据，具有重要科学价值与现实意义。

The annual discharge amount of mine waste tailings in China is over 1.2 billion tons. And the risk control situation of the documented 7800 tailings ponds is then considered to be complex and severe. Therefore, the demand for both the fundamental theories and technologies of dam breach disaster emergency management is highlighted. Based on the research progress in two-phase flow and natural hazards debris flow, the project is proposed aiming at the basic scientific problems of tailings mudflow migrating mechanism, behind the dam breach emergency management dilemma. The research scheme that combines case study, engineering investigation, laboratory test, similar simulation, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation is proposed. The state-of-the-art technologies of rotating plate test, particle image velocimetry system, SPH numerical method and UAV Remote Sensing will be adopted. The correlation law between the tailings mudflow physical characteristics and its impact factors (tailings grain size distribution, dam breach mode etc.) will be revealed, through the typical cases analysis and indoor orthogonal tests. The particles migrating law, the solid-liquid boundary size and the particles interaction mechanism will be studied by developing similar testing models. Meanwhile, the numerical prediction model considering real terrains will be proposed based on the solid-liquid constitutive model and SPH method. And finally, the application framework for the tailings dam breach emergency management decision making will be built. The application scenarios of the research outputs will cover the whole life-cycle processes of tailing pond planning, design, construction, operation, closure and further treatments. Thus, the fundamental theoretical basis for the decision making of site planning, capacity expansion, emergency response, disaster situation and so on can be provided respectively, which is highly important in both aspects of scientific value and practical significance.