国内大循环背景下中国房地产税的政策选择及影响分析：基于全生命周期和家庭财富视角

提高居民消费对于实现党中央提出的“形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”非常重要。随着家庭财富对于居民消费影响的重要性日益显现，作为一项重要的财富性税收，房地产税政策正受到越来越多的关注和讨论。本项目拟从全生命周期和家庭财富视角出发，通过构建中国家庭消费模型并进行实证检验，分析财富水平对家庭消费行为的影响。在此基础上，本项目拟将多类型家庭纳入一般均衡模型框架，通过构建多家庭聚合分析可计算一般均衡(CGE-IMH)模型，模拟不同类型家庭在房地产税政策下财富及消费的变化及其相互影响，探究房地产税政策对居民消费和经济增长的影响。进一步地，本项目拟构建中国社会福利模型，通过比较不同房地产税政策情境下社会福利水平的差异以及其对不同类型家庭福利的影响，考察房地产税政策的最优实施路径。本项目的研究期望丰富相关居民消费和公共经济学等领域的相关研究，为政府实施房地产税政策提供决策参考。

Increasing residents' consumption is very important for realizing the "formation of a new development pattern in which domestic and international double cycles are mutually promoted" proposed by the Party Central Committee. With the increasing importance of household wealth on residents' consumption, as an important wealth tax, real estate tax policy is receiving more and more attention and discussion. This project intends to analyze the impact of wealth level on household consumption behavior by constructing a Chinese household consumption model and conducting empirical tests from the perspective of the whole life cycle and household wealth. Then, this project intends to incorporate multiple types of households into the framework of the general equilibrium model. By constructing a Computable General Equilibrium Integrated Multi-Household Analysis (CGE-IMH) Model, this project can simulate changes in wealth and consumption of different types of households under the real estate tax policy, as well as exploring their mutual influence, the impact of real estate tax policy on residents' consumption and economic growth. Furthermore, this project intends to construct a social welfare model in China to examine the optimal implementation path of real estate tax policies by comparing the differences in social welfare levels under different real estate tax policy scenarios and their impact on the welfare of different types of families. The research of this project is expected to enrich relevant research in the fields of residents' consumption and public economics, and provide reference for the government to implement real estate tax policies.