气温和PM2.5/PM1在长三角地区的时空演变对精神分裂症影响的多维精准化研究

气温和大气颗粒物在时间和空间上相互交织严重危害精神健康。我国精神分裂症的疾病负担位列世界首位，但气温、PM2.5及其主要成分PM1暴露对精神分裂症的交互作用还不清楚，暴露效应的地区差异尚未探究。本项目拟在长三角地区开展研究：（1）联合使用卫星遥感反演、空间插值、地理定位等方法精准评估气温（高温/热浪、低温/寒潮、温度变异）和颗粒物（PM2.5、PM1）暴露的时空演变规律；（2）从群体和个体暴露出发，利用DLNM、logistic和分段回归模型，分析暴露因素对精神分裂症的短期影响，辨识有害暴露方式、敏感人群和交互作用；（3）应用高运算效率INLA法替代传统MCMC法下的半参数零膨胀贝叶斯时空条件自回归模型，揭示暴露因素对该疾病长期影响的局部空间差异，快速精准定位高风险地区；（4）量化暴露因素引起的疾病负担（归因风险和寿命损失年）。本项目将为长三角地区精神分裂症的预警和防治规划提供科学依据。

Spatial and temporal interaction of air temperature and ambient particulate matter seriously jeopardizes mental health. Globally, the disease burden of schizophrenia rank first in China, but little is known about the synergistic effects of exposure to air temperature, PM2.5, and its main component PM1 on schizophrenia. Meanwhile, the spatial difference in the effects of exposure to air temperature and PM2.5/PM1 on schizophrenia has not yet been investigated. This project aims to conduct research in the Yangtze River Delta, including: (1) jointly using methods of satellite remote sensing inversion, spatial interpolation and geocoding to precisely assess population exposure to air temperature (high temperature/heatwave, low temperature/cold spell, temperature variability) and particulate matter (PM2.5, PM1) as well as the underlying spatiotemporal changing patterns; (2) using DLNM, logistic, and segmented regression model to assess the short-term effects of exposures at the population and individual level on schizophrenia, aiming to identify the exposure modes of the hazards, vulnerable populations, and joint effects of the hazards; (3) applying the INLA approach with high computational efficiency instead of traditional MCMC approach to semiparametric zero-inflated Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to reveal the regional differences in the long-term effects of exposures on schizophrenia with the aim to rapidly and accurately identify the high-risk area; (4) quantifying the exposure-induced disease burden including attributable risk and years of life lost. This project will provide the basis for the early-warning of schizophrenia and the development of prevention and control measures in the Yangtze River Delta.