长江经济带血吸虫病传播影响因素及风险识别研究

日本血吸虫病曾是严重影响人民健康和阻碍社会经济发展的人兽共患寄生虫病，其传播易受生物、自然、社会经济等因素影响。经过多年的防治，我国已于2015年达到传播控制标准，但防治成果比较脆弱。2014年长江经济带建设上升为国家重大战略，所覆盖的9省2市中有8省1市为血吸虫病流行区。长江经济带建设将引起人口、资源流动以及生态环境的改变，给血吸虫病传播和防控成果的巩固带来不确定性。本研究拟应用流行病学、生态学、分子生物学和数据挖掘等多学科知识和技术，以经济带建设活动及流动人口、家畜血吸虫感染情况为切入口，利用数学建模和数据挖掘等计算方法阐明长江经济带沿线血吸虫病分布规律及其影响因素；以生物分布对基础生态位的需求为理论基础，预测长江经济带沿线钉螺分布和扩散趋势；在此基础上建立血吸虫病传播风险识别技术和指标体系，以及时掌握长江经济带血吸虫病疫情趋势及传播风险，为提出精准干预措施和防控对策提供参考。

Schistosomiasis japonica is a zoonotic parasitic disease used to affect people's health and hinder the social and economic development significantly in P. R. China. Its transmission was easily affected by biological, natural and socio-economic factors. After multiple years of prevention and control, China has reached the standard of transmission control by 2015.However, the current achievements obtained on schistosomiasis prevention and control are relatively fragile. In 2014, the construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (abbreviated as “YREB”) has become a major national strategy. Among nine provinces and two cities covered by YREB, 8 provinces and 1 city are endemic areas of schistosomiasis.Exchange in population and resources, as well as environmental changes caused by the construction of the YREB will bring uncertainty to the transmission of schistosomiasis and the consolidation of achievements obtained on schistosomiasis control. Applying multiple disciplines and technologies including epidemiology, ecology, molecular biology and data mining etc., this study will clarify the distribution of schistosomiasis along the YREB and its influencing factors through mathematical modeling and data mining technique, based on the situation of floating population, livestock and their status of schistosome infection. The distribution and diffusion trend of Oncomelania hupensis along the YREB were predicted based on the demand of biological distribution for basic niche. The risk identification indicator system and techniques will be established to assess and grasp the epidemic trend and transmission risk of schistosomiasis in the YREB in time, thus to provide reference for formulation of precise intervention and control strategy.