基于田间病菌孢子捕捉技术的小麦白粉病预测模型的适用性研究

小麦白粉病现已成为我国小麦生产上重要的常发性病害之一，近年来病菌孢子捕捉技术的发展和改进，为田间空气中该病菌孢子浓度的定量监测研究提供了先进的技术支持。本课题组近十多年来通过采用病菌孢子技术对田间空气中小麦白粉病菌孢子变化动态监测和研究发现，该技术在此病害的监测和预测预报中具有良好的应用前景，但研究结果也发现，采用病菌孢子捕捉技术所建立的该病害预测模型在年度或品种间存在一定的差异，这大大限制了该技术在生产上的应用范围。因此本项目拟进一步通过对全国主要病害流行区田间病菌孢子的动态进行监测，采用随机系数混合模型对这些监测数据以及本课题组过去连续12年田间监测白粉菌季节变化动态的数据进行分析，探究基于孢子捕捉技术的白粉病预测模型的适用性和影响适用性的因子及其影响程度，由此建立适用范围广、准确性高的基于病菌孢子捕捉技术的白粉病预测模型，以期为孢子捕捉技术在该病害监测和预测上的应用奠定坚实的基础。

Wheat powdery mildew has becomes one of the most important and common diseases in wheat production in China, In recent years, with the development and improvement of pathogen spore capture technique, advanced technical support has been provided for the quantitative monitoring and study of the concentration or quantity of the Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici in the fields. However, our previous studies over the last decade have also demonstrated that there existed differences between the disease monitoring models which established by pathogen spore capture technique in different years or wheat varieties, these differences will limit the applicability of this technology in practice. Therefore, this project intends to conduct statistical analysis using random coefficient mixed models through further multiple field spore trap experiments in major wheat powdery mildew epidemic regions and combining with the historical data on seasonal dynamics of Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici in the fields which monitored by spore traps for twelve years by our research lab, to explore the applicability of spore trap predicting models of wheat powdery mildew and ascertain the factors which influence these models, and further clarify the influence extent. Based on this, the wide range of applicable and accurate models for predicting wheat powdery mildew will be constructed using field pathogen spore capture technique, and lay a solid foundation for the application of spore trap technique in monitoring and predicting wheat powdery mildew in practice.