子女升学压力与家庭劳动供给决策：中国家庭隐性教育投资行为的识别与测度

在家庭教育投资中，除现金性的显性教育支出外，家庭也通过放弃潜在收入并增加精力陪护的方式进行隐性教育投资。识别和评估中国家庭隐性教育投资行为和规模，是理解中国人力资本积累和家庭劳动力供给决策的重要视角，但已有文献还未对此进行系统研究。本研究拟利用教育竞争加剧背景下，子女进入升学阶段带来的教育压力外生变化，剥离家庭日常子女抚养行为的干扰，识别和评估家庭在子女升学阶段的隐性教育投资行为和规模。本课题将具体开展三方面工作：一是利用入学年龄政策断点和子女出生时间的随机性构造因果识别策略，使用断点回归（RD）方法，估计子女升学压力对家庭尤其是母亲收入和劳动参与率的影响。二是利用地区重点高校录取率与子女是否处于升学阶段的双重差异，构建双重差分（DID）模型估计教育政策环境对家庭隐性教育投资行为的影响。三是在地区宏观层面，实证估算家庭隐性教育投资规模及其地区分布。

In family education investment, in addition to cash-based explicit education investment, families also make recessive education investment by giving up potential income.Identifying the recessive education investment behavior is an important perspective to understand the human capital accumulation and the decision-making of household labor supply in China, but the literature has not been studied. Based on the exogenous impact of educational pressure brought by children's entrance exams, this study identifies and evaluates the recessive educational investment behavior and scale. This topic will carry out three aspects of work. First, this study constructs a regression discontinuity design (RD) to estimate the impact of educational pressure on family income and labor force participation rate based on the school age policy and the randomness of children birth time.Second, this study constructs a difference in difference (DID) model to estimate the impact of education policy on family recessive education investment based on the dual difference between college admission rate and whether children face entrance exams.Thirdly, this study empirically estimates the scale of family recessive education investment at the regional level.