基于“30·60目标”的中国居民家庭能源回弹效应测度与影响机制研究

中国实现新达峰与碳中和愿景（“30·60目标”）的关键策略之一是提高能源效率，而能源回弹效应会伴随提高能源效率出现。居民家庭能源消费增速已超过全国能源消费增速，提高居民家庭能源效率引发的回弹效应影响“30·60目标”能否顺利实现。本研究以居民家庭能源回弹效应对实现“30·60目标”的影响为问题导向，拓展居民家庭能源回弹效应研究视角，解决测度回弹效应的瓶颈问题；融合多学科分析方法，为揭示居民家庭能源回弹效应影响机制提供新思路。基于地级市面板数据和城乡入户调查数据，通过构建包括改进的随机前沿模型、投入产出模型、再分配模型和计量经济模型等在内的能源回弹效应测度体系识别全国、案例地区的城镇和乡村居民家庭能源回弹效应变化规律；采用居民家庭能源消费预测模型展望回弹效应对实现“30·60目标”的可能影响；利用QCA方法揭示居民家庭能源回弹效应的关键影响因素和影响机制，提出缓解能源回弹效应的应对政策。

One of China's key strategies to achieve the new peaking target and carbon neutrality resolution (i.e. "30·60 target") is to improve the energy efficiency, while the energy rebound effects appear along with the increasing of the energy efficiency. Given the fact that growth rate of household energy consumption has already been higher than the growth rate of national energy consumption, the energy rebound effects arising from improved energy efficiency among households energy consumption will affect the attainment of the "30·60 target" at some extent. This study intends to discuss the impact of households energy rebound effects on the achievement of the "30·60 target"; solve the bottle-neck problem when measuring the households energy rebound effects by expanding the research perspective; provide new method to reveal the influential mechanism of household energy rebound effects by integrating multi-disciplinary research methods. This research will collect panel data on city level and household survey data of urban residents and rural residents to measure the rebound effects of urban and rural households energy consumption in nationwide and in study area with the improved stochastic frontier model, energy input-output model, redistribution model and econometrics model; assess the impact of the rebound effects of households energy consumption on the attainment of the "30·60 target" with the households energy consumption prediction model; identify the key driving factors for the households energy rebound effects via QCA method, and propose corresponding solutions to mitigate the households energy rebound effects.