WTO框架下农业补贴改革对粮食生产的影响及应对研究

近些年，中国农业补贴政策与WTO规则的一致性问题越来越成为一项重要议题。特别是，2016年美国向WTO秘书处提起了中美粮食补贴争端的诉讼。事实上，为顺应WTO规则，中国一直在致力于农业补贴的改革。一方面，中央政府在2015-2016年推行了农业“三项”补贴改革，将农作物良种补贴、种粮农民直接补贴和农资综合补贴合并为农业支持保护补贴；另一方面，2014-2017年相继在东北（辽宁、吉林、黑龙江）和内蒙古开启了大豆和玉米的临时收储政策改革。从相关文件来看，政府希望通过改革实现在WTO框架下进一步促进粮食生产的目的。那么，WTO规则是如何影响此次农业补贴改革？进而，又对粮食生产产生了怎样的影响？为此，本课题首先试图厘清WTO与农业补贴改革内在逻辑；其次，基于相关数据，考察农业补贴改革对粮食生产的影响；最后根据结论为今后如何在WTO框架下进行水稻、小麦最低收购价政策的调整与完善提供一些决策方向。

The consistency between China's agricultural subsidy policy and WTO rules has become an important issue in recent years. In particular, the United States filed a dispute over food subsidies between China and the United States with the WTO Secretariat in 2016. In fact, in order to comply with WTO rules, the Chinese government has been working on the reform of agricultural subsidies. On the one hand, the central government implemented the reform of agricultural "three items" subsidies in 2015-2016, combining crop seed subsidies, direct subsidies for grain farmers and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural materials into agricultural support and protection subsidies. On the other hand, the interim policy reform of soybean and corn collection and storage was launched in Northeast China (Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang) and Inner Mongolia in 2014-2017. From the relevant documents, the government hopes to achieve the goal of further promoting grain production under the WTO framework through reform. How, then, do WTO rules affect this agricultural subsidy reform? And what is the impact on grain production? To this end, the subject first attempts to clarify the internal logic of WTO and agricultural subsidy reform.Secondly, based on relevant data, the impact of agricultural subsidy reform on grain production is investigated from three aspects: business scale, production efficiency and output. Finally, according to the conclusion, it provides some decision direction for adjusting and perfecting the minimum purchase price policy of rice and wheat under the WTO framework.