重大突发公共卫生事件下的医疗物资转扩产动员机制与产能决策

医疗物资转扩产是重大突发公共卫生事件下医疗物资可持续性供应的保障。通过对武汉市应对新冠肺炎疫情中的医疗物资转扩产工作的回顾，发现疫情期间医疗物资转扩产动员机制下医疗物资转扩产产能与需求存在不匹配的现象，即初期医疗物资转扩产产能不足，后期转扩产产能过剩的现实问题。在此基础上，提出了本项目：重大公共突发公共卫生事件下医疗物资转扩产产能决策与动员机制优化。主要研究内容包括：1）武汉市新冠肺炎疫情下医疗物资转扩产工作复盘，建模扩展的传染病动力学模型分析医疗物资转扩产对疫情演变的影响规律；2）疫情演变下医疗物资转扩产产能决策；3）多元政策耦合下医疗物资转扩产动员机制设计。通过在集中决策与分散决策情景下分别建立政府-转扩产企业-需求者之间动态序贯博弈模型，获得疫情不同阶段医疗物资转扩产动员机制与产能决策方案。最后评估决策方案，以期为重大突发公共卫生事件下医疗物资转扩产提供建议。

The transfer and expansion of medical supplies is the guarantee for the sustainable supply of medical supplies under major public health emergencies. Through the review of the transfer and expansion of medical supplies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan, we found that the production capacity of medical supplies did not match the demand under the mobilization mechanism for the transfer and expansion of medical supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic. That is, the production capacity is insufficient in the early stage while over in the later. Grounded upon the above, we proposed the project of Production Capacity Decision and Mobilization Mechanism Optimization of Medical Supplies Transfer and Expansion under Major Public Health Emergencies. The main research contents are: 1) The resumption of the transfer and expansion of medical supplies in Wuhan, to analyze the impact of the transfer and expansion of medical supplies on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic; 2) Decision on the production capacity of transfer and expansion of medical supplies under the evolution of major public health emergencies; 3) Design of the mobilization mechanism for the transfer and expansion of medical materials under the coupling of multiple policies. Through the establishment of a dynamic sequential game model between the government, the production-transfer-expansion company, and the demanders under the centralized decision-making and decentralized decision-making scenarios, we will obtain the decision-making and mobilization mechanism optimization plans for the transfer and expansion of medical supplies at different stages of the pandemic. Finally, we evaluate the obtained decision-making plans in order to provide corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the transformation and expansion of medical supplies under major public health emergencies.