基于公众参与的城市公共交通政策碳减排有效性研究

面对外有“减排承诺”压力、内有“雾霾笼罩”之困的严峻局面，努力实现交通领域碳减排已刻不容缓。本项目结合公众参与行为来探讨城市公共交通政策碳减排有效性问题，旨在揭示公众参与在公共交通政策实现碳减排中的核心作用，以此为基础探索最佳路径来提升城市公共交通政策的碳减排有效性。具体而言，首先在微观层面研究公众参与公共交通的影响机制，同时在宏观层面评估现有公共交通政策的碳减排功效，而后通过引入有效链接宏观系统和微观行为的可计算一般均衡微观模拟模型，将公众参与和公共交通政策效果进行微宏观的系统性连接，开展大量的政策模拟，以进一步揭示政策有效性提升的核心机制，为实现交通领域的碳减排提供切实可行的公共交通政策优化方案。本项目不仅以计量分析的视角探索了公众参与机制以及现有公共交通政策的直接碳减排效果，更在一般均衡视角将两者有机结合以探索最优的政策体系，为加快推进绿色循环低碳交通运输体系建设提供重要思路。

Faced with the grim situation where external pressures from “emission reduction commitment” couple with internal difficulties of “smog shrouding”, it is imperative to achieve carbon emission reduction in the transport sector. This project probes into the effectiveness of urban public transport policies on carbon emission reduction based on public participation, aiming to reveal the central role of public participation in the realization of public transport policies on carbon emission reduction, and to explore the optimal path for improving the effectiveness of urban public transport policies on carbon emission reduction. To be specific, it first studies the impact mechanism of public participation in public transport from a micro perspective, and at the same time conducts a macro evaluation on the carbon emission reduction effectiveness of existing public transport policies. Through the introduction of the Computable General Equilibrium Micro-Simulation Model (CGE-MS) that effectively links the macro system with micro behavior, this paper then systematically connects public participation and the effect of public transport policies, and carries out substantial policy simulations to further reveal the core mechanism of policy effectiveness improvement, and to provide feasible public transport policy optimization schemes for the realization of carbon emission reduction in the transport sector. In addition to exploring the direct carbon emission reduction effects of public participation mechanism and existing public transport policies through econometric analysis, this project organically integrates the two to explore the optimal policy system from the perspective of general equilibrium, providing important ideas for accelerating the construction of a green, circular and low-carbon transport system.