基于生物质能供给保障的农户响应及其土地利用空间优化路径

缺乏规模化和来源稳定的原料供应是阻碍我国生物质能产业发展的关键问题，其根本原因是农户对能源植物种植响应度不高且缺乏科学的能源植物种植空间规划指引。现有研究主要集中在生物能源供应链的中间环节，对人地耦合系统支撑的生物能源供给保障研究关注不足。项目聚焦能源植物种植的农户主体及其所依托的土地空间，结合参与式农户调查，利用数据挖掘、地理模拟与空间优化等技术，对生物质能供给保障的农户响应及其土地利用空间优化中的关键科学问题开展研究。包括：1）探讨内外驱动因素对农户种植意愿影响的机理与交互机制； 2) 利用行为与决策模拟来揭示农户种植行为的响应机制；3）结合自然适宜性和农户意愿对宜能土地供给潜力进行测算；4）基于权衡博弈理论构建多智能体模型，开展依托土地的空间优化配置路径研究。研究成果将为农户能源植物种植行为的有效调控以及制定科学性、前瞻性生物质能土地利用的统筹规划提供理论支撑和方法支持。

The lack of stable and large-scale supply of raw materials is a key problem hindering the development of China's biomass energy industry. The root cause is that farmers are not responsive to the planting of energy plants and lack scientific planning guidelines for the space planting of energy plants. The existing research mainly focuses on the middle link of the bioenergy supply chain, and there is insufficient attention to the research on bioenergy supply support supported by the human-ground coupling system. The project focuses on the farmers and the land space that planting energy rely on. Based on participatory farmer surveys, to ensure the supply of raw materials for the biomass energy industry, use data mining, geographic simulation, and spatial optimization technologies to carry out research on key scientific issues in farmer responses and land use space optimization. The issues include: 1) Exploring the mechanism and interaction mechanism of internal and external driving factors on farmers' planting willingness; 2) Using behavior and decision simulation to reveal the response mechanism of farmers' planting behavior; 3) Combining natural suitability and farmers' willingness to evaluate the land supply potential for planting energy; 4) Constructing a bottom-up multi-agent model based on the game theory of trade-offs to carry out research on the spatial optimal allocation of bioenergy planting land. The research results will provide theoretical support and method support for the effective regulation of farmer energy plant planting behaviors and the formulation of scientific and prospective overall planning for biomass land use.