“全面二孩”政策下的生育意愿、生育行为及其经济影响

党的十九届五中全会提出“优化生育政策，增强生育政策包容性”，当前我国的生育政策调整处于一个关键节点。生育行为受到女性生育意愿和生育政策的双重约束。国家生育政策调整的重大现实需求要求我们回答如下一些关键性科学问题：哪些因素决定了当前我国的育龄妇女生育意愿？低生育意愿是否影响了“全面二孩”政策实施后的生育行为？“全面二孩”政策实施后新出生的人口是否对区域经济变量产生了影响？本项目将利用原国家卫计委开展的2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据等大样本微观数据库，考察女性受教育程度和部分政府公共政策等决定因素对女性生育意愿的因果效应。我们将利用“全面二孩”政策这一自然实验，研究女性生育意愿和传统文化等因素如何影响生育行为，并构造工具变量考察新生儿数量对消费等区域经济变量的短期影响。本项目的研究结论将为政府优化生育政策、出台“生育友好型”政策提高女性生育意愿提供参考。

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed “improving the family planning policy and enhancing its inclusiveness,” making the reform of China’s family planning policy standing at a critical moment. Women’s fertility intention and the government’s family planning policy are crucial determinants of reproductive behavior. The practical demand of reforming China’s family planning policy motivates us to answer the following scientific questions with rich policy implications: What are the determinants of Chinese women’s fertility intention? Does low fertility intention weaken the effectiveness of the Universal Two-Child Policy? What are the impacts of newborns induced by the Universal Two-Child Policy on regional economic outcomes? This project employs the National Survey on Chinese Women’s Fertility Status in 2017 conducted by the former National Health and Family Planning Commission of China, aided by other datasets, to explore the determinants of women’s fertility intention systematically. We focus on the causal effects of women’s educational attainment and several government policies on women’s fertility intention. We estimate the Universal Two-Child Policy’s average effect on birth rate and its heterogeneity across women’s fertility intention. We unearth how traditional culture cast imprints on the fertility rate by shaping women’s fertility desires. We exploit the interaction of the Universal Two-Child Policy and the pre-determined traditional culture proxy as an instrumental variable to study newborns’ short-term effects on regional economic outcomes, such as household consumption. Our findings will provide insights for the Chinese government to introduce “birth-friendly” policies, promote women’s fertility intension and improve the Universal Two-child Policy.