跨区域视角下城市食物-能源-水关联关系解析与模拟

食物、能源和水资源（Food-Energy-Water, FEW）是支撑人类社会发展的不可或缺、不可替代的基础性资源，且三者之间存在着不可分割、错综复杂的关联关系（Nexus）。以单一系统作为研究对象分别制定资源治理政策，不但不能从整体实现三种资源的综合集约利用，而且还可能导致权衡风险等非期望性结果。城市与区域之间存在着空间耦合关系，FEW三种资源在跨区域传输过程中交互影响，使得城市FEW关联关系及其协同管理变得更为复杂和困难。本研究将在城市尺度上，基于跨区域视角构建城市FEW关联关系解析与模拟的框架，集成生命周期分析、多区域投入产出分析、系统动力学与多目标优化模型等，系统分析城市FEW资源供需变化、相互之间的足迹响应及其跨区域产业链传导机制，建立综合考虑多要素、多区域、多部门的集成优化分析模型，从而为提高城市资源综合利用效率、保障资源供给安全等韧性城市建设提供定量依据。

Food, energy, and water (FEW) are three essential resources for meeting basic human needs. The efficient provision of food, energy, and water is not only important, but also challenging due to the complex interdependence of these three systems named as nexus. For example, water is required for food and energy production; energy is needed for food and water production as well as wastewater treatment. Changing components of one system may lead to desired or undesired effects on other systems. Traditional sector-based and region-bound governance paradigm often places food, energy and water in competition. This calls for innovative approaches to model the FEW nexus as an integrated whole, instead of examining them individually, to identify co-benefits and avoid unexpected consequences or problem-shifting. Urban systems largely obtain FEW resources outside of their physical boundaries, and create environmental impacts that extend beyond city borders. In other words, most of FEW demands for urban systems are met through trade and direct imports. The increasing share of trade has made the relationship between FEW more complex at urban scale as materials and energy are transferred crossing regions along multifaceted supply chains. To produce fully informed analysis of urban sustainability, there is also great need for innovation in modeling methods and governance practices that recognize the tele-connections between cities and their interlinked regions. In such case, this project will be dedicated to build an integrated framework for systems modeling and optimizing of urban FEW nexus with regard to cross regional interactions. The main research tasks of this project include investigating the FEW nexus within and tele-connection between city and its hinterland, by integrating methods as LCA, multi regional input-output model and multi-object optimization model. Then taking Beijing city as case, the environmental footprints of FEW consumption will be accounted and outsourced using LCA and multi regional input-output model, the key supply chain, key node and key area associated with the multi regional supply chains will be identified using the structural path analysis, and multi-objective optimization strategies will be put forwarded using the integrated optimization modelling tool package. Without a doubt, the implement of this project will contribute to enhance water, energy and food security and improve their utilizaiton efficency in a green urban economy and contribute significantly to the sustainable management of FEW resources at the global scale.