生命周期视角下的女性贡献、代际转移与经济盈余

改革开放四十年来，经济转型、人口变迁与性别平等化趋势相互交织，对个体的经济行为与政府的转移支付模式产生深刻的影响。本课题在经济生命周期的框架下，引入性别视角，采用在代际经济学领域前沿的国民转移账户方法，结合微观和宏观层面数据，系统分析中国经济社会转型期的个体经济行为与政府转移支付。课题首先测算男性与女性非市场化劳动的经济价值，并在此基础上重新估算分性别、分年龄的劳动收入、消费与经济盈余（劳动收入与消费之差），以深入了解各年龄组经济行为模式的变化与性别差异。其次，估算分性别、分年龄的政府教育、医疗与养老转移支付，以全面评估政府转移支付分配的性别不平等与代际不均衡。最后，多方案模拟人口老龄化、性别均等化和社会福利体系改善对未来经济盈余与政府财政负担的影响。本研究有助于深化对女性经济贡献以及性别不平等程度的认知，也为老龄化社会经济发展路径的调整与社会保障体系的改革提供必要的实证依据。

Over the past four decades, China’s economic transformation, demographic transition and gender equalization have intertwined with each other, and significantly impacted individual economic behavior and government transfers. Under the economic life course framework and with a particular attention paid into gender perspective, this project employs the National Transfer Accounts method and combines the macro and micro-level data to trace and predict the changes in labor income, consumption as well as government transfers. First, we take into account the value of unpaid care work to re-estimate the age-specific per capita labor income, consumption and economic surplus by gender. Second, we estimate the age-specific per capita government transfers in education, health care and pension by gender. Finally, we project the future economic surplus and fiscal burden under various scenarios of population aging, gender equalization and improvement in social welfare. This project helps to deepen the understanding of female contribution and gender disparity, and offer implications for transitions in economic strategy and reforms in social security systems.