联合定殖与转移模型的厨房食品接触表面单增李斯特菌暴露评估研究

单增李斯特菌是一类传播范围广、环境耐受能力强的典型食源性致病菌，精准评估其风险对我国疾病防控工作有重要意义。当前，我国单增李斯特菌安全问题在流行菌株及危害发生环节方面具有特殊性，针对ST87型流行株的评估工作存在暴露过程不明确，预测模型不适用，信息优选技术不完善等瓶颈。前期研究发现，单增李斯特菌可长期存在于家庭厨房，并在食品接触表面间转移。鉴于此，本项目拟以ST87型单增李斯特菌菌株为研究对象，通过综合考察温度、营养、接触表面材质条件对其生存、生物膜形成及转移率的影响，探究其在厨房典型食品接触表面的定殖与转移规律，构建随机动态定量预测模型，并结合荟萃分析方法与贝叶斯思想，实现暴露评估参数可更新机制，提升评估模型的适用性。本项目预期可为阐明我国单增李斯特菌的暴露过程提供理论依据，为理解ST87型单增李斯特菌的生存和传播行为提供模型基础，为多模型联合暴露评估方法的实际应用提供参考。

Listeria monocytogenes is a ubiquitous foodborne pathogen with the ability to resist adverse environments. It is significant to accurately assess its risk for disease prevention and control. Currently, the safety issues of L. monocytogenes in China are special in terms of the epidemic strain and hazard point. There are some bottlenecks in the assessment work of the ST87 strain, such as unclear exposure process, unsuitable prediction model, and insufficient available information. Previous studies have shown that L. monocytogenes could resist adverse environments and persist in the kitchen, then transfer between food contact surfaces. Thus, this project will focus on the ST87 strain, investigate the comprehensive effect of temperature, nutrition, and contact surface material on its survival, biofilm formation, and transfer rate, verify its colonization and transfer pattern, and build the stochastic dynamic quantitative models. Moreover, a renewable exposure assessment would be built based on the meta-analysis and Bayesian method to improve its applicability. The implementation of this proposal is expected to provide observations for elucidating the exposure process of Chinese L. monocytogenes, to build models for explicating the survival and dispersal behaviors of the ST87 strain, and to contribute reference for the multi-model integrated exposure assessment method.