事故信息不完备环境下水上交通救援资源调控研究

合理的水上事故救援资源调控包括需求预测、资源配置和调度可显著减少事故损失尤其是人命伤亡。现有以上报事故数据为基础、以缩短救援时间为目标的水上救援资源调控方法，忽视了事故信息不准确和事故瞒漏报等信息不完备问题，导致了救援资源配置的不足和调控效益降低。因此，项目拟通过多源数据（不同事故数据源、航迹数据等）挖掘方法对不完备事故数据进行整合并解析事故风险本质发生规律；考虑到不完备事故信息发生的不确定性，提出不确定事故风险下的水上救援资源储备库选址和救援资源需求预测方法；兼顾调控效益和成本，提出考虑不完备信息影响的水上救援资源调控方法，通过寻求最佳资源配置（储备库数量、位置以及需配置的救援资源种类和数量等）与调度方案来最小化信息不完备环境下的事故损失、人命伤亡和资源成本。以福建水上事故救援活动重大需求为例，验证并系统集成研究成果，为相关部门构建复杂环境下的水上事故智慧救援平台提供理论指导和技术支持。

An efficient water traffic safety regulation including accident rescue resource demand forecasting, resource allocation and dispatching could greatly reduce accident economic loss and human life loss resulting from water traffic accidents. With the historical traffic accident data, existing water accident rescue resource regulation studies attempted to shorten rescue time while these studies did not taken into account the incomplete and uncertain accident information that could lead to incorrect resource allocation and dispatching. This proposal will explore the incomplete and uncertain water traffic accident information via the multisource data mining method and improve the integrity of accident data that could be further applied to predict the true accident risk. Considering the uncertainty associated with the occurrence likelihood of incomplete accident information, this proposal will then give the methods to determine candidate rescue resource storage locations as well as the water traffic rescue resource demands. From the cost-benefit analysis perspective, it will also put forward the water traffic resource allocation and dispatching method to reduce the accident economic loss, human life loss and resource cost for the inaccurate and time-varying water accident circumstance. Finally, one case study based on the Fujian water accident rescue activity data will be created to testify the applicability of the proposed water traffic accident rescue resource regulation methods. This proposal can help water traffic authorities to make appropriate accident rescue resource regulations and policies in response to the complex and time-varying water traffic accidents.