近2000年来北极与青藏高原多时间尺度温度变化对比研究

北极与青藏高原的气候变化影响着区域与全球气候，进而引起全球环境的改变，并对这些区域及其周边产生重大影响。然而，以往的研究主要从北极、青藏高原各自的角度探讨现代气候变化特征及其区域影响，忽略了北极与青藏高原之间气候变化的潜在联系，对高原与极地气候联动机制的认识也相对缺乏。因此，本研究拟以温度代用序列、观测资料和数值模式模拟资料作为数据基础，以传统的气候检测方法及最新的统计诊断分析与气候模式模拟方法为研究手段，分析近2000年北极与青藏高原的温度在年际、年代际和百年尺度上的变化特征，并研究北极与青藏高原温度变化对典型古气候（冷暖）事件与全球气候快速变化（温度突变、极端气候事件）响应的异同，揭示北极与青藏高原温度变化的主要驱动因素及可能联系。结果将有助于了解北极与青藏高原的气候变化在全球气候变化中的作用，并为揭示它们之间的联动机制，预估未来气候变化提供科学依据。

Climate change in Arctic and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau affects the regional and global climate, which in turn leads to global environment change and has a significant impact on these regions and their surroundings. However, many studies focused on the characteristics of modern climate change and its regional impacts of Arctic or Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, these studies ignore the potential linkage of climate change between Arctic and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Only a few studies have been made effort on the linkage mechanism of climate change between Arctic and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, on the basis of regionally temperature records (proxy data), observation data and numerical model simulation data, this study intends to analyze temperature trend of Arctic and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau at inter-annual, inter-decadal and centennial scales for the past 2000 years. We also analyze the similarities and differences of temperature trend during the typical warm or cold events, extreme climate events and rapid global climate change period. Then we will reveal the driving factors and potential linkage of temperature changes between Arctic and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau with statistical diagnostic analysis and climate model simulation methods. The results will help to understand the role of Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau climate systems in global climate change, and provide a scientific basis for revealing the linkage mechanism between them and predicting future climate change.