经济制裁对中国技术创新的影响机制、效果及对策——基于省级面板数据的研究

与国内外文献主要关注制裁对贸易、就业、金融以及目标国政权稳定性的影响不同，本项目拟探究经济制裁与目标国（中国）技术创新的关系，沿着创新方向填补国际制裁经济学的相关研究空白。首先通过嵌入经济制裁因素对Aghion and Howitt（2009）模型进行扩展，构建单向制裁与技术创新的模型Ⅰ，融合反制裁和第三方效应的模型Ⅱ和模型Ⅲ，就单向制裁与技术创新、反向制裁和第三方效应对两者关系的调节影响以及产业和国别异质性对这种调节效应的再调节效果等进行理论分析；进而采用动态分布滞后固定效应模型和动态分布滞后泊松固定效应模型对理论结论进行实证检验，并运用“两步法”系统GMM模型、LSDVC模型以及HHK模型对实证结论进行稳健性检验；根据理论模型揭示的作用机理，构建经济制裁与中国技术创新能力提生的系统仿真模型，以中国整体以及各省的创新目标作为政策评价的基本标准，论证并提出达到目标值的相关政策优化组合。

Previous studies have investigated the impact of economic sanctions on trade, employment, finance and the stability of the target country’s government. However, there are few, if any, studies exploring the relationship between economic sanctions and innovation. We look to fill the research gap of international economics along the direction of innovation by investigating the impact of economic sanctions on technical innovation in target country (China). First, by embedding economic sanctions into the Aghion and Howitt (2009) model, this project expands and builds a model 1 of unilateral sanctions and innovation, a model II and a model III of “Anti-sanctions” and “The third-party effects” to make a theoretical analysis on the nexus between unilateral sanctions and innovation, the moderating effect of “Anti-sanctions” and “The third-party effects” on the relationship between them and whether the effect of economic sanctions on innovation differs under different third countries and industries. Second, by using dynamic distributed lag fixed effect model and dynamic distributed lag Poisson fixed effect model, this study conducts an empirical analysis to test the theoretical conclusion, and uses the two-step system GMM model, LSDVC model and HHK model to deal with the endogenous problem of economic sanctions. Last but not least, based on the mechanism revealed by the theoretical model, this project intends to build a system simulation model of economic sanctions and the promotion of China’s innovation capabilities and put forward the relevant policy optimization combination to achieve the innovation goals of China as a whole and provinces.