收入再分配政策的社会福利效应研究——理论及应用

为了全面探究我国税收、转移支付等再分配政策的社会福利效应，本课题理论部分首先定义一个新的评估政策社会福利效应的指标——福利收益率/福利损失率，将政策成本纳入指标体系，形成具有现金价值的福利效应指标，使政策效果在不同政策工具、不同国家之间具有可比性。其次通过将指标分解为累进性的作用、再排序的作用、等额补助/等比税率的作用三部分，探究影响政策福利效应的原因和机制；最后引入行政成本指数和不平等厌恶指数，使模型更加贴近现实和更加稳健。实证部分本课题将应用中国家庭收入调查（CHIP）数据和卢森堡收入研究数据库（LIS）对我国个人所得税和转移支付等再分配政策进行评估比较，主要研究内容包括2018年我国再分配政策福利效应的整体评估、不同政策工具的横行比较、三十年改革效果的纵向比较、与其他国家的比较。实证研究的目的除了评估政策对社会福利的改进效果，还包括深入研究政策的作用机制、影响因素和改进方向。

For the purpose of exploring the social welfare effect of redistributive policies such as taxation and transfer payment in China, the theoretical part of this project first defines a new index to evaluate the social welfare effect —— welfare return rate / welfare loss rate, in which policy cost is included. The index is a money metric social welfare effect which makes the result comparable in different policy tools and in different countries.Secondly, by dividing the index into three parts: progressive function, reordering function and equal subsidy/flat rate tax , this project will explore the reasons and mechanisms that affect the welfare effect; Finally, the administrative cost index and inequality aversion index are introduced to make the model more realistic and more robust. The empirical study will use the Chinese household income survey (CHIP) data and Luxembourg income research database (LIS) to evaluate and compare the welfare effect of redistribution policies in China. The main research contents include the overall evaluation of the welfare effect of China's redistribution policy in 2018, the horizontal comparison of different policy tools, the vertical comparison of the reform effect in 30 years, and the comparison with other countries. The purpose of empirical research is not only to evaluate the effect of policy on social welfare, but also to study the mechanism, influencing factors and direction of policy improvement.