中国财政政策空间对财政政策有效性的影响：实证分析与模型仿真

本项目的主要目标是，分析中国财政政策空间对财政政策有效性的影响效果及其背后的作用机理，并且提出提高财政政策有效性的具体措施。为了实现这些目标，本项目将开展如下三方面的研究工作。一是，构建与中国经济实际情况相符合的财政政策空间和财政政策有效性指标，并使用局部投影法等实证方法来检验财政政策空间对财政政策有效性的影响。二是，构建含有“中国化”财政政策的DSGE模型，深入剖析财政政策空间影响财政政策有效性的具体机理，在此基础上量化评估财政政策空间收紧对财政政策有效性的影响。三是，基于所构建的理论模型，开展丰富的政策模拟实验，比较优化财政政策工具、加强财政货币政策协调等各类政策的优劣，提出应对财政政策空间收紧影响财政政策有效性的解决方案。

The main goal of this project is to comprehensively study the impact of fiscal space on the effectiveness of China’s fiscal policy and propose effective solutions to improve the effectiveness of fiscal policy. To achieve this goal, this project will proceed in the following way. Firstly, constructs appropriate measures for China’s fiscal space and fiscal policy effectiveness, and examine how fiscal space affects fiscal policy effectiveness using empirical methods like local projection method. Secondly, build a DSGE model with fiscal policy settings that are in line with Chinese economy’s characteristics to explore the mechanisms behind which fiscal space affects fiscal policy, and then quantify the impact of tightening fiscal space on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Lastly, conduct a series of policy simulation experiments based on the DSGE model above and then compare the benefits and costs of various policies, such as optimizing fiscal policy instruments and strengthening fiscal-monetary policy coordination. Then, this project will propose effective solutions to cope with the challenges of tightening fiscal space on fiscal policy effectiveness.