长期护理保险的溢出效应评估和政策优化研究

长期护理保险作为保障失能风险的一项社会制度，是我国社会保障制度的主要组成部分。综合评估长期护理保险的福利效应，是社会各界关注的热点话题，相关理论和政策难题亟待突破。考虑到长护险的推行不仅会对参保群体的福利产生影响，还会对家庭成员的劳动、消费和投资决策产生影响，本课题旨在考虑长护险对家庭成员的溢出效应，并据此对长护险政策进行优化研究。首先，本课题使用双重差分法、三重差分法和中介效应检验法，关注长护险对家庭成员劳动供给和风险意识产生的溢出效应，并且厘清长护险产生溢出效应的传导机制。其次，本课题使用生命周期模型，在考虑溢出效应的基础上，分析长护险对家庭的福利效应。再次，综合考虑长护险溢出效应给家庭带来的福利效应和给政府带来的收益，使用成本收益法分析长护险对社会的整体福利效应。最后，立足于长护险的政策优化，定性和定量地评估各试点的长护险政策，对完善和下一步扩大长护险试点提供相关的政策意见。

As a social insurance arrangement to protect disabled risk, long-term care insurance (LTCI) is an important component of China’s social security system. The evaluation of the welfare effects of LTCI are widely discussed topics and require related theoretical and empirical evidence in urgent. Because LTCI will not only affect the welfare of the insured but also affect the labor supply, consumption, and investment decisions of other family members. This project aims to consider the spillover effect of LTCI on family members and conduct policy optimization analysis on LTCI accordingly. Firstly, this program will analyze the spillover effect of LTCI on family members from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We pay attention to the spillover effect of LTCI on family members’ labor supply and risk awareness as well as the mediation mechanisms behind it, using a difference-in-difference (DID) method and a mediation effect test. Secondly, this program will explore how LTCI improves family utility through a life cycle model, considering the above spillover effect. Thirdly, this program will analyze the overall welfare effect of the LTCI on the whole society using a cost-benefit analysis, considering both the welfare effects of LTCI on families and the benefits for the government. Finally, this program will evaluate and compare the LTCI policies in various pilots from both qualitative and quantitative aspect. We also come up with suggestions about improving the current policies and expanding LTCI pilots nationwide in the future.