全球贸易新格局下中国构建自主型粮食安全体系的理论路径与政策模拟研究

在充满挑战的“全球贸易新格局”中，作为主要粮食出口国的美国并没有利用出口国地位威胁减少对中国的出口，而作为进口国的中国却将减少来自美国的大豆进口作为重要角力筹码，这是否意味着在全球贸易新格局下，中国可以一直高枕无忧地把控自身粮食安全体系的主导权？随着世界贸易格局和中国自身条件的深刻变化，上述局面将如何演化？中国如何在国际国内环境不断变化的情况下，不断调节政策工具，以确保在全球贸易新格局下拥有自主型粮食安全体系？本研究将围绕“未来会怎样”以及“如果那样就应该怎么做”的逻辑思路，通过理论研究和政策模拟，定量回答上述问题，并完成三个任务：1.明确国内、国际粮食供需的现状以及未来的变化趋势，完成现状及趋势的参数化过程；2.通过RECS模拟定量估算未来中国可以选择的粮食政策参数区间；3.通过理论归纳、模拟估算及实践分析，构建全球贸易新格局下，实现中国社会总福利最优及其他相关目标的决策参数估算体系。

In the new global trade era full of challenging, the United States, as a major grain exporter, has not used the status of an exporting country to threaten to reduce exports to China, while China, an importing country, has used the tool of reducing soybean imports from the United States as an important bargaining chip. Does this mean that China can always control the dominance of its own food security system in the new global trade era? With the profound changes for the world trade pattern and China's own conditions, how will the above situation evolve? How can China continuously adjust policy tools under the changing international and domestic environment to ensure that it has an independent food security system in the new global trade era? This research will focus on the logical thinking of "what will happen in the future" and "what should be done if that is the case". Through theoretical research and policy simulation, we will quantitatively answer the above questions and complete three tasks: 1. Determine the current status of domestic and international food supply and demand as well as future trends, complete the parameterization process of the status quo and trends; 2. Use RECS simulation to quantitatively estimate the range of food policy parameters that China can choose in the future; 3. Through theoretical induction, simulation estimation and practical analysis, build a decision-making parameter estimation system to achieve optimal social welfare in China and other related goals.